Принцип «черного ящика». Как превратить неудачи в успех и снизить риск непоправимых ошибок

118 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014–10–02/fed-critics-say-10-letter-warning-inflation-still-right.

119 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014–10–02/fed-critics-say-10-letter-warning-inflation-still-right.

120 Philip E. Tetlock. Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006.

121 Sydney Finkelstein. Why Smart Executives Fail: And What You Can Learn from Their Mistakes. N. Y.: Portfolio/Penguin, 2013.

122 Terrance Odean. Are Investors Reluctant to Admit Their Losses? // Journal of Finance. 1998. October.

123 Paul J. H. Schoemaker. Brilliant Mistakes: Finding Success on the Far Side of Failure. Philadelphia: Wharton Digital Press, 2011.

124 Karl Popper. The Poverty of Historicism, L.: Routledge, 2002. (На рус. яз.: Поппер К. Нищета историцизма. М., 1993. Перевод С. Кудриной.)

125 Описано в кн.: Pronovost. Safe Patients, Smart Hospitals.

126 David Hilfiker. Facing Our Mistakes // New England Journal of Medicine. Vol. 310. 1984. № 2. P. 118–122.

127 C. E. Milch et al. Voluntary Electronic Reporting of Medical Errors and Adverse Events: An Analysis of 92,547 Reports from 26 Acute Care Hospitals // Journal of General Internal Medicine. Vol. 21. 2006. № 2. P. 165–170.

128 Pronovost. Safe Patients, Smart Hospitals.

129 История Лысенко изложена в десятках статей и книг, включая: Valery N. Soyfer. Lysenko and the Tragedy of Soviet Science, New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2006 и Nils Roll-Hansen. The Lysenko Effect: The Politics of Science. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 2004.

130 http://tauruspet.med.yale.edu/staff/edm42/IUPUI-website/emorris.tar/ emorris/emorris/Ethics%2 °Course%2009/Journal%20articles/lysenko-nature-rev-genetics2001-nrg0901_723a.pdf.

131 Jasper Becker. Hungry Ghosts: Mao’s Secret Famine. N. Y.: Simon & Schuster, 1997.

132 http://www.haydenplanetarium.org/tyson/watch/2008/06/19/george-bush-and-star-names.

133 http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/16/another-day-another-quote-fab-ricated-by-neil-degrasse-tyson/.

134 http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/16/neil-tysons-fi nal-words-on-his-quote-fabrications-my-bad/

135 Giuliana Mazzoni and Amina Memon. Imagination Can Create False Autobiographical Memories // Psychological Science. Vol. 14. 2003. № 2. P. 186–188.

136 Elizabeth F. Loftus, John C. Palmer. Reconstruction of Automobile Destruction: An Example of the Interaction Between Language and Memory // Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior. Vol. 13. 1974. P. 585–589.

137 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4177082.stm.

138 Сайт проекта «Невиновность».

139 Gary L. Wells, Nancy K. Steblay, Jennifer E. Dysart. A Test of the Simultaneous vs Sequential Lineup Methods: An Initial Report of the AJS National Eyewitness Identification Field Studies // American Judicature So ciety. Стоит отметить, что стоимость проведения этих реформ сравнительно мала.

14 °Cайт проекта «Невиновность».

141 http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2002–09–29/news/0209290340_1_ jogger-case-jogger-attack-matias-reyes.

142 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.

143 http://www.miamiherald.com/incoming/article1953372.html.

144 Committee on Identifying the Needs of the Forensic Science Community National Research Council, Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States, отчет, 2009.

145 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/opinion/why-our-memory-fails-us.html.

146 Shai Danziger, Jonathan Levav, Liora Avnaim-Pesso. Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

147 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2011/04/11/ justice-is-served-but-more-so-after-lunch-how-food-breaks-sway-the-decisions-of-judges/#.VYaU80Yk-So.

148 http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014–06–10/news/chi-dna-links-murder-and-rape-of-holly-staker-11-to-second-murder-8-years-la-ter-20140610_1_holly-staker-dna-evidence-dna-match.

149 Интервью взято автором.

150 http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-juan-rivera-shoes-met-20141210-story.html#page=1.

151 См. лекцию Стива Джонса: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=for_ WIKgdWg. See also Owen Barder: http://www.owen.org/blog/4018.

152 Включая Карла Поппера и Фридриха Хайека.

153 Tim Harford. Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure. N. Y.: Little, Brown, 2011.

154 Paul Omerod, wn, 2011lway

155 Terence Kealey. The Economic Laws of Scientific Research. N. Y.: Palgrave Macmillan, 1996.

156 Taleb Nassim Nicholas. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, N. Y.: Penguin, 2013. (На рус. яз.: Талеб Н. Н. Антихрупкость. М.: КоЛибри, Азбука-Аттикус, 2013. Перевод Н. Караева.)