Думай и не ошибайся! Как избежать ловушек сознания

Porter, Michael E. “What Is Strategy?” Harvard Business Review, November-December 1996.

Ошибка выжившего

Brown, Stephen J., et al. “Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies.” Review of Financial Studies 5, no. 4 (1992): 553–80.

Carhart, Mark M. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.” Journal of Finance 52, no. 1 (1997): 57–82.

Ellenberg, Jordan. How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking. London: Penguin, 2015.

Глава 3

Использование интуиции менеджерами и руководителями

Akinci, Cinla, and Eugene Sadler-Smith. “Intuition in Management Research: A Historical Review.” International Journal of Management Reviews 14 (2012): 104–22.

Dane, Erik, and Michael G. Pratt.“Exploring Intuition and Its Role in Managerial Decision Making.” Academy of Management Review 32, no. 1 (2007): 33–54.

Hensman, Ann, and Eugene Sadler-Smith. “Intuitive Decision Making in Bank-ing and Finance.” European Management Journal 29, no. 1 (2011): 51–66. Sadler-Smith, Eugene, and Lisa A. Burke-Smalley. “What Do We Really Understand About How Managers Make Important Decisions?” Organizational Dynamics 9 (2014): 16.

Интуитивное принятие решений

Cholle, Francis P. The Intuitive Compass: Why the Best Decisions Balance Reason and Instinct. Hoboken, NJ: Jossey-Bass/Wiley, 2011.

Gigerenzer, Gerd. Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making. London: Penguin, 2008.

Gladwell, Malcolm. Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. New York: Little, Brown, 2005.

Klein, Gary. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions.Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998.

Эвристика и искажения

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.” Psychological Bulletin 76, no. 2 (1971): 105–10.

“Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974): 1124–31.

Сотрудничество и соперничество Канемана и Клайна

Kahneman, Daniel, and Gary Klein. “Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree.” American Psychologist 64, no. 6 (2009): 515–26.

“Strategic Decisions: When Can You Trust Your Gut?” Интервью Даниэля Канемана и Гари Клайна. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010.

Применимость профессионализма в разных областях

Shanteau, James. “Competence in Experts: The Role of Task Characteristics.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 53, no. 2 (1992): 252–66.

“Why Task Domains (Still) Matter for Understanding Expertise.” Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition 4, no. 3 (2015): 169–75.

Tetlock, Philip E. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005.

(Не)применимость интуиции в принятии кадровых решения

Dana, Jason, Robyn Dawes, and Nathanial Peterson. “Belief in the Unstructured Interview: The Persistence of an Illusion.” Judgment and Decision Making 8, no. 5 (2013): 512–20.

Heath, Dan, and Chip Heath. “Why It May Be Wiser to Hire People Without Meeting Them.” Fast Company, June 1, 2009.

Moore, Don A. “How to Improve the Accuracy and Reduce the Cost of Personnel Selection.” California Management Review 60, no. 1 (2017): 8–17.

Schmidt, Frank L., and John E. Hunter. “The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 85 Years of Research Findings.” Psychological Bulletin 124, no. 2 (1998): 262–74.

Глава 4

Сверхуверенность