Думай и не ошибайся! Как избежать ловушек сознания

Grocer, Stephen. “Apple’s Stock Buybacks Continue to Break Records.” New York Times, August 1, 2018.

Неприятие потерь

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometrica 47, no. 2 (1979): 263–91.

Ретроспективное искажение

Baron, Jonathan, and John C. Hershey. “Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54, no. 4 (1988): 569–79.

Fischhoff, Baruch. “An Early History of Hindsight Research.” Social Cognition 25, no. 1 (2007): 10–13.

“Hindsight Is Not Equal to Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1, no. 3 (1975): 288–99.

Fischhoff, Baruch, and Ruth Beyth. “‘I Knew It Would Happen’: Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13, no. 1 (1975): 1–16.

Ловушка сюжета и ретроспективное искажение в трудах по истории

Risi, Joseph, et al. “Predicting History.” Nature Human Behaviour 3 (2019): 906–12.

Rosenberg, Alex. How History Gets Things Wrong: The Neuroscience of Our Addiction to Stories. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2018.

Приход Черчилля к власти в 1940 году

Shakespeare, Nicholas. Six Minutes in May: How Churchill Unexpectedly Became Prime Minister. London: Penguin Random House, 2017.

Ретроспективное искажение в организациях

Thaler, Richard H. Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics. New York: W. W. Norton, 2015.

Парадокс «робкий выбор, смелый прогноз»

Kahneman, Daniel, and Dan Lovallo. “Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking.” Management Science 39, no. 1 (1993): 17–31.

March, James G., and Zur Shapira. “Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking.” Management Science 33, no. 11 (1987): 1404–18.

Примечания

– самый значительный вклад психологии в поведенческую экономику: Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011, 360.

Глава 7

Капитализм и дальняя перспектива

Barton, Dominic, and Mark Wiseman. “Focusing Capital on the Long Term.”McKinsey Quarterly, December 2013.

Business Roundtable. “Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation.” August 19, 2019. Available at https://opportunity.businessroundtable.org/wp-content/ uploads/2020/02/BRT-Statement-on-the-Purpose-of-a-Corporation-with-Signatures-Feb2020.pdf.

Fink, Laurence D. Letter to CEOs. March 21, 2014.

George, Bill. “Bill George on Rethinking Capitalism.” McKinsey Quarterly, December 2013.

Polman, Paul. “Business, Society, and the Future of Capitalism.” McKinsey Quarterly, May 2014.

Porter, Michael, and Marc Kramer. “Creating Shared Value.” Harvard Business Review, January 2011.

Управленческая близорукость

Asker, John, Joan Farre-Mensa, and Alexander Ljungqvist. “Corporate Investment and Stock Market Listing: A Puzzle?” Review of Financial Studies 28, no. 2 (February 2015): 342–90.

Graham, John R., Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal. “Value Destruction and Financial Reporting Decisions.” Financial Analysts Journal 62, no. 6 (2006): 27–39.

Целевые показатели

Buffett, Warren E., and Jamie Dimon. “Short-Termism Is Harming the Economy.” Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2018.

Cheng, Mey, K. R. Subramanyam, and Yuan Zhang. “Earnings Guidance and Managerial Myopia.” SSRN working paper, November 2005.

Hsieh, Peggy, Timothy Koller, and S. R. Rajan. “The Misguided Practice of Earnings Guidance.” McKinsey on Finance, Spring 2006.