The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

He speaks an unusually precise and formal French, much like that spoken by Levantines of my parents’ generation or Old World aristocrats. This made it odd to hear, on occasion, his accented, but very standard, colloquial American English. He is tall, overweight, which makes him look baby-faced (although I’ve never seen him eat a large meal), and has a strong physical presence.

From the outside one would think that what Mandelbrot and I have in common is wild uncertainty, Black Swans, and dull (and sometimes less dull) statistical notions. But, although we are collaborators, this is not what our major conversations revolve around. It is mostly matters literary and aesthetic, or historical gossip about people of extraordinary intellectual refinement. I mean refinement, not achievement. Mandelbrot could tell stories about the phenomenal array of hotshots he has worked with over the past century, but somehow I am programmed to consider scientists’ personae far less interesting than those of colorful erudites. Like me, Mandelbrot takes an interest in urbane individuals who combine traits generally thought not to coexist together. One person he often mentions is Baron Pierre Jean de Menasce, whom he met at Princeton in the 1950s, where de Menasce was the roommate of the physicist Oppenheimer. De Menasce was exactly the kind of person I am interested in, the embodiment of a Black Swan. He came from an opulent Alexandrian Jewish merchant family, French and Italian-speaking like all sophisticated Levantines. His forebears had taken a Venetian spelling for their Arabic name, added a Hungarian noble title along the way, and socialized with royalty. De Menasce not only converted to Christianity, but became a Dominican priest and a great scholar of Semitic and Persian languages. Mandelbrot kept questioning me about Alexandria, since he was always looking for such characters.

True, intellectually sophisticated characters were exactly what I looked for in life. My erudite and polymathic father—who, were he still alive, would have only been two weeks older than Benoît M.—liked the company of extremely cultured Jesuit priests. I remember these Jesuit visitors occupying my chair at the dining table. I recall that one had a medical degree and a PhD in physics, yet taught Aramaic to locals in Beirut’s Institute of Eastern Languages. His previous assignment could have been teaching high school physics, and the one before that was perhaps in the medical school. This kind of erudition impressed my father far more than scientific assembly-line work. I may have something in my genes driving me away from bildungsphilisters.

Although Mandelbrot often expressed amazement at the temperament of high-flying erudites and remarkable but not-so-famous scientists, such as his old friend Carleton Gajdusek, a man who impressed him with his ability to uncover the causes of tropical diseases, he did not seem eager to trumpet his association with those we consider great scientists. It took me a while to discover that he had worked with an impressive list of scientists in seemingly every field, something a name-dropper would have brought up continuously. Although I have been working with him for a few years now, only the other day, as I was chatting with his wife, did I discover that he spent two years as the mathematical collaborator of the psychologist Jean Piaget. Another shock came when I discovered that he had also worked with the great historian Fernand Braudel, but Mandelbrot did not seem to be interested in Braudel. He did not care to discuss John von Neuman with whom he had worked as a postdoctoral fellow. His scale was inverted. I asked him once about Charles Tresser, an unknown physicist I met at a party who wrote papers on chaos theory and supplemented his researcher’s income by making pastry for a shop he ran near New York City. He was emphatic: “un homme extraordinaire,” he called Tresser, and could not stop praising him. But when I asked him about a particular famous hotshot, he replied, “He is the prototypical bon élève, a student with good grades, no depth, and no vision.” That hotshot was a Nobel laureate.

THE PLATONICITY OF TRIANGLES