HOW DO YOU SLAY A DRAGON?

Considering all this, today we can at last make an accurate diagnosis of the 1990s. Surprisingly, this period has now once again become a subject of heated discussion. At that time, attempts to carry out lasting reforms failed. In my opinion this was specifically because the reformers ignored the essential task of enlisting society’s solid support. They naively believed that they could carry out changes while ignoring the views of the majority. At best, they assumed that they would remain neutral; in the worst case, they thought they could ride roughshod over any opposition. They chose a course of action that appealed ideologically to a small section of society that shared their radical “westernised” views. The economic beneficiaries of the reforms were also a very mixed – and at the same time tiny – group. The majority of the population not only suffered significant economic hardship from these changes, but the values that the reformers were preaching remained foreign to them. The inevitable outcome of such a situation was that society was alienated from the government and the path it was following. The consequences of this alienation were reflected in the mass support, initially a counter-revolution, for Putin’s reactionary political course. If we don’t want to repeat this scenario in the future we must not repeat the errors of the ’nineties.

An exceedingly difficult task will present itself from the outset to the temporary government: in a situation where there is a deep economic crisis and a fragmented society that is teetering on the edge of civil confrontation, how can problems be solved that have built up over many decades? How can such a government win the support of society for its actions?

If we put to one side any ideas for “a quick fix” based on the general dislike of the old regime (and experience shows that such dislike doesn’t last long), then all that’s left is to put into action a “left-wing plan” that would at least satisfy the fundamental economic demands of the majority of the population. It’s essential that the majority believes that the government’s actions strategically match their own long-term economic interests. Only then will the people be prepared to back the government in its difficult journey through the period of transition. In other words (and many people still fail to accept this) there’s a fairly simple calculation that has to be done that will limit any deep change in Russia: it will have to be carried out along with a “left-wing plan”. By “left-wing plan”, what I mean is that it must be geared towards the social and economic needs of the people; as opposed to the “right-wing plan” that satisfies the needs of the minority. Had the reformers in the 1990s not ignored the social needs of the majority of the people, it is quite possible that today we would not be trying to solve the problem of Putinism. If those who have set themselves the task of carrying out a political battle with the regime once again ignore the social and economic needs of the majority, they will never achieve their political goals.

Nowadays, everyone understands this. There are now no opposition forces that wouldn’t promise the Russian people social benefits and economic well-being along with political freedom and a state governed by the rule of law. Nevertheless, people don’t rush to believe such promises. For some, it’s because the 1990s are still fresh in their minds; for others, it’s because there are few concrete details in such promises, and much of what is said is unrealistic with the current state of the economy.

In order to win enough trust from the majority to carry out far-reaching changes, people shouldn’t be given promises of a wonderful life in some far-off future, but guarantees that will work right now. Strange as it may seem, such guarantees exist now, and can be presented to the people by a temporary government in exchange for long-term support of a reformist path. This involves returning to the people what was taken from them in the 1990s: namely benefitting from the extraction of natural resources, known as resource rent, and a fair distribution of property.

Resource rent is the principle source of wealth in Russia, both privately and publicly. Officially, resource rent today is controlled by the state; but in reality, it’s controlled by the mafia cabal that’s replaced the state. All ideas that are put forward regarding the fate of resource rent come back to one point: whatever force replaces the Putin regime has to ensure that the distribution of resource rent is done more fairly than it is today. In other words, the people will receive more than they do now. But since the Russian population has grown used to regarding anything related to the state with deep mistrust, they don’t believe in this crock of gold at the end of the rainbow, either.