HOW DO YOU SLAY A DRAGON?

In such conditions, from where can a parliamentary system come with the stability needed to be an alternative to autocracy? Where is the necessary strength in such a feeble world? Only in the regions. It is only the regional elites with their local interests, their local self-awareness and with their regional links that have been built up over centuries that have the ability in modern Russia to be the potential subjects – and not objects – of politics. If they were to support a parliamentary republic, it will come about. If they don’t, it will simply disappear like yet another historic Russian mirage. A parliamentary republic is possible only if there is a proper federal structure, when local finances and local life in general is governed by those who live in the locality.

Why is the issue of federalism so important for Russia? It’s because with its cultural, religious and, of course, economic pluralism, Russia can be a unified state only under the cruellest of dictatorships, which crushes and levels out all local characteristics. Without such a dictatorship it’s impossible to bring under a single denominator places such as Moscow and Grozny; Kazan and Magadan; Kaliningrad and Khabarovsk; St Petersburg and Kemerovo. If we wish to have even a hint of democracy in Russia, we must allow for the existence of pluralism; and not simply economic, but political, too. Incidentally, the Russian Empire that is so revered by Putin’s followers was politically pluralistic. For centuries the European system of self-governance in Finland existed alongside the khanates of the Middle Ages that ruled Central Asia. Democracy in Russia means pluralism; and in modern times political pluralism can be achieved only through federalism.

Achieving this, however, is no easy task. Why is it that Russia has always been an overly-centralised state? Because if the centre showed any weakness and handed any significant autonomy over to the regions, petty little tsars would rise up in these regions, each of whom would prove to be greedier and more evil than the tsar in Moscow. So the people would ask Moscow to help defend them from these local satraps and the bandits whom they cultivated around them. And the power of the centre always relied on this. A weak tsar led to strong petty tsars; and a strong tsar meant the petty tsars were weak. How can this vicious circle be broken?

There is a way out. We need to introduce a third element, a force that is independent of these two extremes. This is something that everyone knows very well, because it’s the very force that in recent years the Putin regime has been trying above all else to crush. It is local self-government. A regional governor who’s taken power into his own hands while the centre was looking the other way, can be stopped by an independent and self-sufficient mayor or head of a local administration. If the local authorities limit the powers of the petty tsar, he or she will be obliged to become a regional constitutional monarch. And if not, the local authorities will instinctively seek the support of Moscow, thus strengthening central government. This will help to even out the system, because it will bring in the checks and balances that are essential for creating a genuine democracy.

The space for an independent judiciary arises only when this triangle of the local authorities, regional governor and central government is developed. By definition, the relationship between the parties cannot be ideal. There will either be constant war between them, or there will have to be an arbiter acceptable to all. It is absolutely impossible for there to be an independent legal system if the need for it is not recognised by the stronger side. Apart from the united local elites, there is no strong side in modern Russia: they’ve all been squeezed out. The centre, the regions and the local authorities will need rules and an arbiter who can watch over them all. In such a situation, perhaps the idea of a genuine independent judiciary might take root in Russia for the first time.

The arrival of a proper system of justice will mark the start of a gradual massive change in the relationship between the citizen and the state, and will create the conditions for the restoration (or, to be more accurate, building once more from scratch) of civil society in Russia. Progress in this will lead eventually to the final result: freedom, human rights, free and fair elections based on political competition, and stable institutions that support a state governed by the rule of law. But all of this and much more besides will not come all at once. Such an outcome can be achieved only by following a chain of events step by step. And the most important link in this chain, I believe, is the path to a parliamentary republic.