HOW DO YOU SLAY A DRAGON?

In the post-modern world there are no longer clearly defined dividing lines, and, consequently, no straightforward spheres of influence. One and the same territory can fall within the sphere of influence of a number of different countries, at the same time having an influence on each of them. Everything is relative; and everything’s fluid. There’s a constant battle and constant competition going on in these grey areas. What tends to happen is that if someone tries to establish their single control over such an area they end up losing all influence over it.

The clearest example of such a losing strategy is Russia’s policy towards Ukraine since 2014. Despite having a huge historical advantage, Russia refused to compete with the West for influence over Ukraine and, by its actions, has turned it into a hostile state for decades to come, if not forever. Ukraine is now a zone of alienation between Russia and Europe.

Does this all mean that the principal driving factor of the Kremlin’s policy is stupidity? Only partly. Greed plays an even bigger role. In reality, the ruling class in Russia doesn’t want to fight. Over the 20 years they’ve been in power their representatives have integrated themselves into European life in a way that’s never been done before. They’ve sent their children, their wives and their mistresses to Europe; they’ve acquired real estate and bank accounts; they’ve become the favourite clients of European bankers and generous patrons of European politicians. Dozens of university campuses throughout Europe bear their names. They own fashionable galleries and shops. They don’t shy away from innovation, especially when it’s a long way from Russia’s borders. Yes, they don’t want Russia to be free; but they’re more than ready to make use of other countries’ freedom (and security) in the West. That’s the whole point.

Possibly to an even greater extent than events in Ukraine, the Magnitsky Act became a trigger point for the Kremlin’s crusade against the West. The so-called “war against the West” carried out in the name of Russia was a war of the ruling class for its privileges and, above all, the right to spend its money in the West. That was in its own way a kind of primitive blackmail. Russia didn’t attempt to conquer the West (the Kremlin does understand the limits of its capabilities), but just wanted the West to accept its conditions. The principal one was, don’t poke your nose into our business, don’t pay attention to what’s going on here with human rights and corruption, leave us to amuse ourselves with our imperial ambitions within the boundaries of the zone of influence that was established by the USSR, and just get on enjoying your comfortable European lives. Now everything’s changed. Putin’s dragged Russia into a war that’s put the Russian ruling class back in its usual place in the international community for many years to come. Now their place is the same as that of the elites of North Korea, Iran and other such marginal countries. That’s the mistake; or rather, it’s the result of Putin’s evolution from being a thief to being a fanatic. The interests of the elite have also been thrown overboard.

So how does this match Russia’s national interests? The answer is: not at all. How can we understand what those interests are? Let’s ask ourselves this question: what do we want to do, bomb Voronezh or restore Voronezh? If we want it bombed, then we don’t need anything and we can go ahead and fight the West. Ah, but if we want to restore it, to make it not like Stalingrad in 1943, but along the lines of Montreal, then there’s a lot we have to do; and all of it is hindered by our confrontation with the West. We need new technology; massive investment; know-how and skilful management; qualitatively new education and healthcare; normal competition. Without all of this, we have no hope of emerging from this stagnation. All of this can be achieved only through integration into the global economy; and integration and war simply don’t go together.

Many critics of the current regime go to the other extreme, suggesting that the idea of “Russia’s national interests” is simply an illusion; you can’t even shake on it. But Russia genuinely does have national interests, and these need to be protected. They do not, though, have anything in common with the narrow, clan interests of “the group of thugs from Leningrad”, who seized power in Russia and have implemented total militarisation of the country. The real national interest for Russia is its fastest possible integration into the global economic system and the restructuring of its political and economic life in such a way that the country can take up a worthy place in this system.