HOW DO YOU SLAY A DRAGON?

So the Kremlin’s aim is to demarcate zones of influence with the West (and then with China) so that it can spread its political and military control over certain territories, having put up a new iron curtain. But here’s a question: why does a country that has the largest territory in the world (most of it uninhabited) and that’s facing a demographic crisis, need new land under its control? After all, controlling a place means that you have to take responsibility for it and spend resources on it, both material and human. Maybe Russia needs more useful mineral resources? But Russia can hardly cope with what it has already. Maybe Russia needs markets for its production of high-tech equipment? But Russia cannot make such equipment (even military equipment) without the cooperation of the same Western world that it wants to shut itself off from with a new iron curtain. And using military means to bring about such isolation excludes any such cooperation, anyway. So why is it doing this? What’s the secret?

At first glance, the answer is as follows: Russia is ruled by people with an archaic mentality, people who are mentally stuck not just in the last century but the one before that. They have a primitive, peasant-like understanding of the purpose of politics, that rests, like the Russian peasant’s view of the world, on the back of “three whales”.

Firstly, there’s the view that any relations with the outside world represents a zero-sum game: there’s always “us” and “them”, and if “they” win something then “we” must have lost by the same amount, and vice-versa. There are no shades of colour in this game, there’s only black and white. A compromise is just a tactical trap. Alliances just mean military cunning. And in general Russia has just two allies: its army and its navy.

Secondly, there’s the view that holding territory is what’s most important of all. That this represents the basis of strength, wealth and influence. The bigger the territory held, the better. The aim of any politician must be to expand their territory. In the confines of this political philosophy, losing any territory is a tragedy, whilst gaining it is an undoubted positive step. As in the past, they judge the historical significance of any ruler by the amount of territory they’ve gained or lost.

Thirdly, in the view of the Kremlin strategists the whole world is divided up into distinct spheres of influence. A sphere of influence is rather like an extension of your territory. It’s a space where, even in a limited way, your sovereignty can be extended. It’s essential that your foreign and domestic policy is aimed at extending your sphere of influence. All of the functions of the state should be geared towards achieving this.

In the post-modern world, such traditional views have undergone a significant re-think. But this news has not yet reached the Kremlin.

All of the main players in modern politics and business are already operating according to different rules. At the basis of the new rules is not the theory of the zero-sum game, but the “win-win” strategy, the so-called “Nash equilibrium”. This is the theory that in complicated systems no one side in the relationship can work out a successful strategy if the other sides don’t agree to change their strategies. In other words, in the modern world no one can achieve overall success on their own when playing against others. On the contrary, it’s only when you’ve learnt to cooperate, agreed the rules with everyone else, and you’ve consented to fulfil them yourself, that you can improve your position. The modern world represents competition within previously agreed borders that are in the interests of all the players. Anyone who wants to play without these rules is thrown out of the game.

Furthermore, in the twenty-first century, with modern digital technology, the seizure of territory is certainly not guaranteed to be an advantage. This extra territory could turn out to be a definite disadvantage, and become a burden. The expense of maintaining order in an occupied territory, as well as keeping daily life going, and paying for social and other infrastructure could well outweigh any benefit gained.

For some time technologies have been available that allow “an economic harvest” to be gathered from “foreign fields” without needing to use military force to seize them. The size, number and high level of education of the population has become a much more important indicator of economic and political strength, and bears witness to a country’s great potential. But Russia’s strategists have a real problem with this. Russia is not simply losing numbers of people, but it’s suffering an intellectual decline as the best brains in the country are being forced out. And the more war games the country plays, the more intensive this process will become.