Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

33. A. Chrisafis, “Emmanuel Macron Vows Unity After Winning French Presidential Election,” The Guardian, May 8, 2017.

34. US election exit poll data, New York Times 2016. N. Carnes & N. Lupu, “It’s Time to Bust the Myth: Most Trump Voters Were Not Working Class,” Washington Post, June 5, 2017. See also the references in notes 35 and 36 below.

35. N. Silver, “Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote for Trump,” FiveThirtyEight, Nov. 22, 2016, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/; N. Silver, “The Mythology of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support: His Voters Are Better Off Economically Compared with Most Americans,” FiveThirtyEight, May 3, 2016, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/. Confirmation from Gallup polls: J. Rothwell, “Economic Hardship and Favorable Views of Trump,” Gallup, July 22, 2016, http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/193898/economic-hardship-favorable-views-trump.aspx.

36. N. Silver, “Strongest correlate I’ve found for Trump support is Google searches for the n-word. Others have reported this too,” Twitter, https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/703975062500732932?lang=en; N. Cohn, “Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Democrat,” New York Times, Dec. 31, 2015; Stephens-Davidowitz 2017. See also G. Lopez, “Polls Show Many—Even Most—Trump Supporters Really Are Deeply Hostile to Muslims and Nonwhites,” Vox, Sept. 12, 2016.

37. Exit poll data: New York Times 2016.

38. European populism: Inglehart & Norris 2016.

39. Inglehart & Norris 2016; based on their Model C, the one with the combination of best fit and fewest predictors, endorsed by the authors.

40. A. B. Guardia, “How Brexit Vote Broke Down,” Politico, June 24, 2016.

41. Inglehart & Norris 2016, p. 4.

42. Quoted in I. Lapowsky, “Don’t Let Trump’s Win Fool You—America’s Getting More Liberal,” Wired, Dec. 19, 2016.

43. Populist party representation in different countries: Inglehart & Norris 2016; G. Aisch, A. Pearce, & B. Rousseau, “How Far Is Europe Swinging to the Right?” New York Times, Dec. 5, 2016.

44. Tininess of the alt-right movement: Alexander 2016. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz notes that Google searches for “Stormfront,” the most prominent white nationalist Internet forum, have been in steady decline since 2008 (other than a few news-related blips).

45. Young liberal, old conservative meme: G. O’Toole, “If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain,” Quote Investigator, Feb. 24, 2014, http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/24/heart-head/; B. Popik, “If You’re Not a Liberal at 20 You Have No Heart, If Not a Conservative at 40 You Have No Brain,” BarryPopik.com, http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/if_youre_not_a_liberal_at_20_you_have_no_heart_if_not_a_conservative_at_40.

46. Ghitza & Gelman 2014; see also Kohut et al. 2011; Taylor 2016a, 2016b.

47. Based loosely on a quotation from the physicist Max Planck.

48. Voter turnout: H. Enten, “Registered Voters Who Stayed Home Probably Cost Clinton the Election,” FiveThirtyEight, Jan. 5, 2017, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voters-who-stayed-home-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/. A. Payne, “Brits Who Didn’t Vote in the EU Referendum Now Wish They Voted Against Brexit,” Business Insider, Sept. 23, 2016. A. Rhodes, “Young People—If You’re So Upset by the Outcome of the EU Referendum, Then Why Didn’t You Get Out and Vote?” The Independent, June 27, 2016.

49. Publius Decius Mus 2016. In 2017, the author of the pseudonymous piece, Michael Anton, joined the Trump administration as a national security official.

50. C. R. Ketcham, “Anarchists for Donald Trump—Let the Empire Burn,” Daily Beast, June 9, 2016, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/09/anarchists-for-donald-trump-let-the-empire-burn.html.

51. A similar argument was made by D. Bornstein & T. Rosenberg, “When Reportage Turns to Cynicism,” New York Times, Nov. 15, 2016, quoted in chapter 4.

52. Berlin 1988/2013, p. 15.

53. Excerpt from a talk, shared in a personal communication; adapted from Kelly 2016, pp. 13–14.

54. “Pessimistic hopefulness” is from the journalist Yuval Levin (2017). “Radical incrementalism” is originally from the political scientist Aaron Wildavsky, recently revived by Halpern & Mason 2015.

55. The term possibilism had previously been coined by the economist Albert Hirschman (1971). Rosling was quoted in “Making Data Dance,” The Economist, Dec. 9, 2010.

CHAPTER 21: REASON