Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

55. US suicides in 2014 (42,773, to be exact): Data from National Vital Statistics, Kochanek et al. 2016, table B. World suicides in 2012: Data from World Health Organization, Värnik 2012 and World Health Organization 2016d.

56. Female suicide decline: “Female Suicide Rate, OECD,” HumanProgress, HumanProgress.org/story/2996/.

57. Suicide by age and period for England: Thomas & Gunnell 2010. Suicide by age, cohort, and period for Switzerland: Ajdacic-Gross et al. 2006. For the United States: Phillips 2014.

58. Falling adolescent suicide rates: Costello, Erkanli, & Angold 2006; Twenge 2014.

59. Negative spin on suicide figures: M. Nock, “Five Myths About Suicide,” Washington Post, May 6, 2016.

60. Eisenhower and Swedish suicide: http://fed.wiki.org/journal.hapgood.net/eisenhower-on-sweden.

61. Suicide rates for 1960 are from Ortiz-Ospina, Lee, & Roser 2016. Suicide rates for 2012 (age-adjusted) are from World Health Organization 2017b.

62. Medium suicide rates in Western Europe: Värnik 2012, p. 768. Decline of Swedish suicide: Ohlander 2010.

63. Generational increase in depression: Lewinsohn et al. 1993.

64. Triggers for PTSD: McNally 2016.

65. Expanding empire of psychopathology: Haslam 2016; Horwitz & Wakefield 2007; McNally 2016; PLOS Medicine Editors 2013.

66. R. Rosenberg, “Abnormal Is the New Normal,” Slate, April 12, 2013, based on Kessler et al. 2005.

67. Expanding concepts of harm as moral progress: Haslam 2016.

68. Evidence-based psychological treatment: Barlow et al. 2013.

69. Global burden of depression: Murray et al. 2012. Adult risks: Kessler et al. 2003.

70. The paradox of mental health: PLOS Medicine Editors 2013.

71. Lack of gold standard: Twenge 2014.

72. No rise in depression over a century: Mattisson et al. 2005; Murphy et al. 2000.

73. Twenge et al. 2010.

74. Twenge & Nolen-Hoeksema 2002: Between 1980 and 1998, successive cohorts of Generation X and Millennial boys aged 8–16 became less depressed, with no change in the girls. Twenge 2014: Between the 1980s and the 2010s, teenagers had fewer suicidal thoughts; college students and adults were less likely to report they were depressed. Olfson, Druss, & Marcus 2015: Rates of mental illness in children and adolescents fell.

75. Costello, Erkanli, & Angold 2006.

76. Baxter et al. 2014.

77. Jacobs 2011.

78. Baxter et al. 2014; Twenge 2014; Twenge et al. 2010.

79. Stein’s Law and anxiety: Sage 2010.

80. Terracciano 2010; Trzesniewski & Donnellan 2010.

81. Baxter et al. 2014.

82. For example, “Depression as a Disease of Modernity: Explanations for Increasing Prevalence,” Hidaka 2012.

83. Stevenson & Wolfers 2009.

84. Excerpted from the book version: Allen 1987, pp. 131–33.

85. Johnston & Davey 1997; see also Jackson 2016; Otieno, Spada, & Renkl 2013; Unz, Schwab, & Winterhoff-Spurk 2008.

86. Statement: Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation 2000. “So-called climate crisis”: Cornwall Alliance, “Sin, Deception, and the Corruption of Science: A Look at the So-Called Climate Crisis,” 2016, http://cornwallalliance.org/2016/07/sin-deception-and-the-corruption-of-science-a-look-at-the-so-called-climate-crisis/. See also Bean & Teles 2016; L. Vox, “Why Don’t Christian Conservatives Worry About Climate Change? God,” Washington Post, June 2, 2017.

87. Garbage barge: M. Winerip, “Retro Report: Voyage of the Mobro 4000,” New York Times, May 6, 2013.

88. Environmental friendliness of landfills: J. Tierney, “The Reign of Recycling,” New York Times, Oct. 3, 2015. The New York Times “Retro Report” series, including the story cited in the preceding note, is an exception to the lack of follow-ups on crisis reporting.

89. Boredom crisis: Nisbet 1980/2009, pp. 349–51. The two main alarmists were scientists: Dennis Gabor and Harlow Shapley.

90. See the references in notes 15 and 16 above.

91. Anxiety over the life cycle: Baxter et al. 2014.

CHAPTER 19: EXISTENTIAL THREATS

1. Mythical missile gap: Berry et al. 2010; Preble 2004.

2. Nuclear retaliation for cyberattacks: Sagan 2009c, p. 164. See also the comments from Keith Payne reproduced in P. Sonne, G. Lubold, & C. E. Lee, “‘No First Use’ Nuclear Policy Proposal Assailed by U.S. Cabinet Officials, Allies,” Wall Street Journal, Aug. 12, 2016.

3. K. Bird, “How to Keep an Atomic Bomb from Being Smuggled into New York City? Open Every Suitcase with a Screwdriver,” New York Times, Aug. 5, 2016.

4. Randle & Eckersley 2015.

5. Quoted on the home page for Ocean Optimism, http://www.oceanoptimism.org/about/.

6. 2012 Ipsos poll: C. Michaud, “One in Seven Thinks End of World Is Coming: Poll,” Reuters, May 1, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mayancalendar-poll-idUSBRE8400XH20120501. The rate for the United States was 22 percent, and in a 2015 YouGov poll, 31 percent: http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/i7p20mektl/toplines_OPI_disaster_20150227.pdf.