Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

38. Protection against infectious disease protects against bioterrorism: Carlson 2010. Preparing for pandemics: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, “Preparing for Pandemics,” http://nyti.ms/256CNNc; World Health Organization 2016b.

39. Standard antiterrorist measures: Mueller 2006, 2010a; Mueller & Stewart 2016a; Schneier 2008.

40. Kelly 2010, 2013.

41. Personal communication, May 21, 2017; see also Kelly 2013, 2016.

42. Easy to commit murder and mayhem: Brandwen 2016.

43. Brandwen 2016 lists several real-life examples of product sabotage with damage ranging from $150 million to $1.5 billion.

44. B. Schneier, “Where Are All the Terrorist Attacks?” Schneier on Security, https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2010/05/where_are_all_the_te.html. Similar points: Mueller 2004b; M. Abrahms, “A Few Bad Men: Why America Doesn’t Really Have a Terrorist Problem,” Foreign Policy, April 16, 2013.

45. Most terrorists are schlemiels: Mueller 2006; Mueller & Stewart 2016a, chap. 4; Brandwen 2016; M. Abrahms, “Does Terrorism Work as a Political Strategy? The Evidence Says No,” Los Angeles Times, April 1, 2016; J. Mueller & M. Stewart, “Hapless, Disorganized, and Irrational: What the Boston Bombers Had in Common with Most Would-Be Terrorists,” Slate, April 22, 2013; D. Kenner, “Mr. Bean to Jihadi John,” Foreign Policy, Sept. 1, 2014.

46. D. Adnan & T. Arango, “Suicide Bomb Trainer in Iraq Accidentally Blows Up His Class,” New York Times, Feb. 10, 2014.

47. “Suicide Bomber Hid IED in His Anal Cavity,” Homeland Security News Wire, Sept. 9, 2009, http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/saudi-suicide-bomber-hid-ied-his-anal-cavity.

48. Terrorism is ineffective: Abrahms 2006, 2012; Brandwen 2016; Cronin 2009; Fortna 2015; Mueller 2006; Mueller & Stewart 2010; see also note 45 above. IQ is negatively correlated with criminality and psychopathy: Beaver, Schwartz, et al. 2013; Beaver, Vauhgn, et al. 2012; de Ribera, Kavish, & Boutwell 2017.

49. Hazards of larger terrorist plots: Mueller 2006.

50. Serious cybercrime requires a state: B. Schneier, “Someone Is Learning How to Take Down the Internet,” Lawfare, Sept. 13, 2016.

51. Skepticism about cyberwar: Lawson 2013; Mueller & Friedman 2014; Rid 2012; B. Schneier, “Threat of ‘Cyberwar’ Has Been Hugely Hyped,” CNN.com, July 7, 2010, http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/07/07/schneier.cyberwar.hyped/; E. Morozov, “Cyber-Scare: The Exaggerated Fears over Digital Warfare,” Boston Review, July/Aug. 2009; E. Morozov, “Battling the Cyber Warmongers,” Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2010; R. Singel, “Cyberwar Hype Intended to Destroy the Open Internet,” Wired, March 1, 2010; R. Singel, “Richard Clarke’s Cyberwar: File Under Fiction,” Wired, April 22, 2010; P. W. Singer, “The Cyber Terror Bogeyman,” Brookings, Nov. 1, 2012, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-cyber-terror-bogeyman/.

52. From Schneier’s article cited in the preceding note.

53. Resilience: Lawson 2013; Quarantelli 2008.

54. Quarantelli 2008, p. 899.

55. Societies don’t collapse under disasters: Lawson 2013; Quarantelli 2008.

56. Modern societies are resilient: Lawson 2013.

57. Biological warfare and terrorism: Ewald 2000; Mueller 2006.

58. Terrorism as theater: Abrahms 2006; Brandwen 2016; Cronin 2009; Ewald 2000; Y. N. Harari, “The Theatre of Terror,” The Guardian, Jan. 31, 2015.

59. Evolution of virulence and contagion: Ewald 2000; Walther & Ewald 2004.

60. Rarity of bioterrorism: Mueller 2006; Parachini 2003.

61. Difficulty of designing a pathogen even with gene-editing: Paul Ewald, personal communication, Dec. 27, 2016.

62. Comment in Kelly 2013, summarizing arguments in Carlson 2010.

63. New antibiotics: Meeske et al. 2016; Murphy, Zeng, & Herzon 2017; Seiple et al. 2016. Identifying potentially hazardous pathogens: Walther & Ewald 2004.

64. Ebola vaccine: Henao-Restrepo et al. 2017. False predictions of catastrophic pandemics: Norberg 2016; Ridley 2010; M. Ridley, “Apocalypse Not: Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Worry About End Times,” Wired, Aug. 17, 2012; D. Bornstein & T. Rosenberg, “When Reportage Turns to Cynicism,” New York Times, Nov. 14, 2016.

65. Bet on bioterror with Martin Rees: http://longbets.org/9/.

66. Reviews of nuclear weapons today: Evans, Ogilvie-White, & Thakur 2014; Federation of American Scientists (undated); Rhodes 2010; Scoblic 2010.

67. World’s nuclear stockpile: Kristensen & Norris 2016a; see also note 113 below.

68. Nuclear winter: Robock & Toon 2012; A. Robock & O. B. Toon, “Let’s End the Peril of a Nuclear Winter,” New York Times, Feb. 11, 2016. History of nuclear winter/autumn controversy: Morton 2015.

69. Doomsday Clock: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2017.

70. Eugene Rabinowitch, quoted in Mueller 2010a, p. 26.