Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

18. According to the UN’s Millennium Development Goals Report 2015, “The number of people in the working middle class—living on more than $4 a day—has almost tripled between 1991 and 2015. This group now makes up half the workforce in the developing regions, up from just 18 per cent in 1991” (United Nations 2015a, p. 4). Of course most of the “working middle class” as defined by the UN would count as poor in developed countries, but even with a more generous definition the world has become more middle class than one might expect. The Brookings Institution estimated in 2013 that it comprised 1.8 billion and would grow to 3.2 billion by 2020 (L. Yueh, “The Rise of the Global Middle Class,” BBC News online, June 19, 2013, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22956470).

19. Camel and dromedary curves: Roser 2016g.

20. More accurately, a Bactrian camel; one-humped dromedaries are technically “camels,” too.

21. Camel to dromedary: For another way of showing the same historical development, see figures 9-1 and 9-2, based on data from Milanović 2016.

22. This is also equivalent to the frequently cited $1.25 cutoff, stated in 2005 international dollars: Ferreira, Jolliffe, & Prydz 2015.

23. M. Roser, “No Matter What Extreme Poverty Line You Choose, the Share of People Below That Poverty Line Has Declined Globally,” Our World in Data blog, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/no-matter-what-global-poverty-line.

24. Veil of ignorance: Rawls 1976.

25. Millennium Development Goals: United Nations 2015a.

26. Deaton 2013, p. 37.

27. Lucas 1988, p. 5.

28. The goal is defined as $1.25 a day, which is the World Bank international poverty line in 2005 international dollars; see Ferreira, Jolliffe, & Prydz 2015.

29. The problem in getting to zero: Radelet 2015, p. 243; Roser & Ortiz-Ospina 2017, section IV.2.

30. The danger in crying “crisis”: Kenny 2011, p. 203.

31. Causes of development: Collier & Rohner 2008; Deaton 2013; Kenny 2011; Mahbubani 2013; Milanović 2016; Radelet 2015. See also M. Roser, “The Global Decline of Extreme Poverty—Was It Only China?” Our World in Data blog, March 7, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/the-global-decline-of-extreme-poverty-was-it-only-china/.

32. Radelet 2015, p. 35.

33. Prices as information: Hayek 1945; Hidalgo 2015; Sowell 1980.

34. Chile vs. Venezuela, Botswana vs. Zimbabwe: M. L. Tupy, “The Power of Bad Ideas: Why Voters Keep Choosing Failed Statism,” CapX, Jan. 7, 2016.

35. Kenny 2011, p. 203; Radelet 2015, p. 38.

36. Mao’s genocides: Rummel 1994; White 2011.

37. According to legend, said by Franklin Roosevelt about Nicaragua’s Anastasio Somoza, but probably not: http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=8204/.

38. Local leaders: Radelet 2015, p. 184.

39. War as development in reverse: Collier 2007.

40. Deaton 2017.

41. Hostility to the Industrial Revolution among Romantics and literary intellectuals: Collini 1998, 2013.

42. Snow 1959/1998, pp. 25–26. Enraged response: Leavis 1962/2013, pp. 69–72.

43. Radelet 2015, pp. 58–59.

44. “Factory Girls,” by A Factory Girl, The Lowell Offering, no. 2, Dec. 1840, https://www2.cs.arizona.edu/patterns/weaving/periodicals/lo_40_12.pdf. Cited in C. Follett, “The Feminist Side of Sweatshops,” The Hill, April 18, 2017, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/labor/329332-the-feminist-side-of-sweatshops.

45. Quoted in Brand 2009, p. 26; chaps. 2 and 3 of his book expand on the liberating powers of urbanization.

46. Reviewed in Brand 2009, chaps. 2 and 3, and Radelet 2015, p. 59. For a similar account from today’s China, see Chang 2009.

47. Slums to suburbs: Brand 2009; Perlman 1976.

48. Improvement in working conditions: Radelet 2015.

49. Benefits of science and technology: Brand 2009; Deaton 2013; Kenny 2011; Radelet 2015; Ridley 2010.

50. Mobile phones and commerce: Radelet 2015.

51. Jensen 2007.

52. Estimate from the International Telecommunications Union, cited in Pentland 2007.

53. Against foreign aid: Deaton 2013; Easterly 2006.

54. In favor of (some kinds of) foreign aid: Collier 2007; Kenny 2011; Radelet 2015; Singer 2010; S. Radelet, “Angus Deaton, His Nobel Prize, and Foreign Aid,” Future Development blog, Brookings Institution, Oct. 20, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/future-development/posts/2015/10/20-angus-deaton-nobel-prize-foreign-aid-radelet.

55. Rising Preston Curve: Roser 2016n.

56. Life expectancy figures are from www.gapminder.org.

57. Correlation between GDP and measures of well-being: van Zanden et al. 2014, p. 252; Kenny 2011, pp. 96–97; Land, Michalos, & Sirgy 2012; Prados de la Escosura 2015; see also chapters 11, 12, and 14–18.

58. Correlations between GDP and peace, stability, and liberal values: Brunnschweiler & Lujala 2015; Hegre et al. 2011; Prados de la Escosura 2015; van Zanden et al. 2014; Welzel 2013; see also chapters 12 and 14–18.