Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

30. D. Bornstein & T. Rosenberg, “When Reportage Turns to Cynicism,” New York Times, Nov. 14, 2016. For more on the “constructive journalism” movement, see Gyldensted 2015, Jackson 2016, and the magazine Positive News (www.positive.news).

31. The UN Millennium Development Goals are: 1. To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. 2. To achieve universal primary education. 3. To promote gender equality and empower women. 4. To reduce child mortality. 5. To improve maternal health. 6. To combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases. 7. To ensure environmental sustainability. 8. To develop a global partnership for [economic] development.

32. Books on progress (in order of mention): Norberg 2016, Easterbrook 2003, Reese 2013, Naam 2013, Ridley 2010, Robinson 2009, Bregman 2017, Phelps 2013, Diamandis & Kotler 2012, Goklany 2007, Kenny 2011, Bailey 2015, Shermer 2015, DeFries 2014, Deaton 2013, Radelet 2015, Mahbubani 2013.

CHAPTER 5: LIFE

1. World Health Organization 2016a.

2. Hans and Ola Rosling, “The Ignorance Project,” https://www.gapminder.org/ignorance/.

3. Roser 2016n; estimate for England in 1543 from R. Zijdeman, OECD Clio Infra.

4. Hunter-gatherers: Marlowe 2010, p. 160. The estimate is for the Hadza, whose rates of infant and juvenile mortality (which account for most of the variance among populations) are identical to the medians in Marlowe’s sample of 478 foraging peoples (p. 261). First farmers to Iron Age: Galor & Moav 2007. No increase for millennia: Deaton 2013, p. 80.

5. Norberg 2016, pp. 46 and 40.

6. Influenza pandemic: Roser 2016n. American white mortality: Case & Deaton 2015.

7. Marlowe 2010, p. 261.

8. Deaton 2013, p. 56.

9. Reducing health care: N. Kristof, “Birth Control for Others,” New York Times, March 23, 2008.

10. M. Housel, “50 Reasons We’re Living Through the Greatest Period in World History,” Motley Fool, Jan. 29, 2014.

11. World Health Organization 2015c.

12. Marlowe 2010, p. 160.

13. Radelet 2015, p. 75.

14. Global healthy life expectancy in 1990: Mathers et al. 2001. Healthy life expectancy in developed countries in 2010: Murray et al. 2012; see also Chernew et al. 2016, for data showing that healthy life expectancy, not just life expectancy, has recently increased in the United States.

15. G. Kolata, “U.S. Dementia Rates Are Dropping Even as Population Ages,” New York Times, Nov. 21, 2016.

16. Bush’s Council on Bioethics: Pinker 2008b.

17. L. R. Kass, “L’Chaim and Its Limits: Why Not Immortality?” First Things, May 2001.

18. Longevity estimates regularly superseded: Oeppen & Vaupel 2002.

19. Reverse-engineering mortality: M. Shermer, “Radical Life-Extension Is Not Around the Corner,” Scientific American, Oct. 1, 2016; Shermer 2018.

20. Siegel, Naishadham, & Jemal 2012.

21. Skepticism about immortality: Hayflick 2000; Shermer 2018.

22. Entropy will kill us: P. Hoffmann, “Physics Makes Aging Inevitable, Not Biology,” Nautilus, May 12, 2016.

CHAPTER 6: HEALTH

1. Deaton 2013, p. 149.

2. Bettmann 1974, p. 136; internal quotation marks omitted.

3. Bettmann 1974; Norberg 2016.

4. Carter 1966, p. 3.

5. Woodward, Shurkin, & Gordon 2009; see also the Web site ScienceHeroes (www.scienceheroes.com). The team’s statisticians are April Ingram and Amy R. Pearce.

6. Book on the past tense: Pinker 1999/2011.

7. Kenny 2011, pp. 124–25.

8. D. G. McNeil Jr., “A Milestone in Africa: No Polio Cases in a Year,” New York Times, Aug. 11, 2015; “Polio This Week,” Global Polio Eradication Initiative, http://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/this-week/, May 17, 2017.

9. “Guinea Worm Case Totals,” The Carter Center, April 18, 2017, https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html.

10. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Our Big Bet for the Future: 2015 Gates Annual Letter, p. 7, https://www.gatesnotes.com/2015-Annual-Letter.

11. World Health Organization 2015b.

12. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, “Malaria: Strategy Overview,” http://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do/Global-Health/Malaria.

13. Data from the World Health Organization and the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group, cited in Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Our Big Bet for the Future: 2015 Gates Annual Letter, p. 7, https://www.gatesnotes.com/2015-Annual-Letter; UNAIDS 2016.

14. N. Kristof, “Why 2017 May Be the Best Year Ever,” New York Times, Jan. 21, 2017.

15. Jamison et al. 2015.

16. Deaton 2013, p. 41.

17. Deaton 2013, pp. 122–23.

CHAPTER 7: SUSTENANCE

1. Norberg 2016, pp. 7–8.

2. Braudel 2002.

3. Fogel 2004, quoted in Roser 2016d.

4. Braudel 2002, pp. 76–77, quoted in Norberg 2016.