Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

5. “Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2015–2020, Estimated Calorie Needs per Day, by Age, Sex, and Physical Activity Level,” http://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/2015/guidelines/appendix-2/.

6. Calorie figures from Roser 2016d; see also figure 7-1.

7. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food and Agriculture 1947, cited in Norberg 2016.

8. A definition by the economist Cormac Ó Gráda, cited in Hasell & Roser 2017.

9. Devereux 2000, p. 3.

10. W. Greene, “Triage: Who Shall Be Fed? Who Shall Starve?” New York Times Magazine, Jan. 5, 1975. The term lifeboat ethics had been introduced a year earlier by the ecologist Garrett Hardin in an article in Psychology Today (Sept. 1974) called “Lifeboat Ethics: The Case Against Helping the Poor.”

11. “Service Groups in Dispute on World Food Problems,” New York Times, July 15, 1976; G. Hardin, “Lifeboat Ethics,” Psychology Today, Sept. 1974.

12. McNamara, health care, contraception: N. Kristof, “Birth Control for Others,” New York Times, March 23, 2008.

13. Famines don’t reduce population growth: Devereux 2000.

14. Quoted in “Making Data Dance,” The Economist, Dec. 9, 2010.

15. The Industrial Revolution and the escape from hunger: Deaton 2013; Norberg 2016; Ridley 2010.

16. Agricultural revolutions: DeFries 2014.

17. Norberg 2016.

18. Woodward, Shurkin, & Gordon 2009; http://www.scienceheroes.com/. Haber retains this distinction even if we subtract the 90,000 deaths in World War I from chemical weapons, which he was instrumental in developing.

19. Morton 2015, p. 204.

20. Roser 2016e, 2016u.

21. Borlaug: Brand 2009; Norberg 2016; Ridley 2010; Woodward, Shurkin, & Gordon 2009; DeFries 2014.

22. The Green Revolution continues: Radelet 2015.

23. Roser 2016m.

24. Norberg 2016.

25. Norberg 2016. According to the UN FAO’s Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015, “Net forest area has increased in over 60 countries and territories, most of which are in the temperate and boreal zones.” http://www.fao.org/resources/infographics/infographics-details/en/c/325836/.

26. Norberg 2016.

27. Ausubel, Wernick, & Waggoner 2012.

28. Alferov, Altman, & 108 other Nobel Laureates 2016; Brand 2009; Radelet 2015; Ridley 2010, pp. 170–73; J. Achenbach, “107 Nobel Laureates Sign Letter Blasting Greenpeace over GMOs,” Washington Post, June 30, 2016; W. Saletan, “Unhealthy Fixation,” Slate, July 15, 2015.

29. W. Saletan, “Unhealthy Fixation,” Slate, July 15, 2015.

30. Scientifically illiterate opinions on genetically modified foods: Sloman & Fernbach 2017.

31. Brand 2009, p. 117.

32. Sowell 2015.

33. Famines not just caused by food shortages: Devereux 2000; Sen 1984, 1999.

34. Devereux 2000. See also White 2011.

35. Devereux 2000 writes that during the colonial period, “macroeconomic and political vulnerability to famine gradually diminished” due to infrastructure improvements and “the initiation of early warning systems and relief intervention mechanisms by colonial administrations which recognized the need to ameliorate food crises to achieve political legitimacy” (p. 13).

36. Based on Devereux’s estimate of seventy million deaths in major 20th-century famines (p. 29) and the estimates of particular famines in his table 1. See also Rummel 1994; White 2011.

37. Deaton 2013; Radelet 2015.

CHAPTER 8: WEALTH

1. Rosenberg & Birdzell 1986, p. 3.

2. Norberg 2016, summarizing Braudel 2002, pp. 75, 285, and elsewhere.

3. Cipolla 1994. Internal quotation marks have been omitted.

4. The physical fallacy: Sowell 1980.

5. The discovery of wealth creation: Montgomery & Chirot 2015; Ridley 2010.

6. Underestimating growth: Feldstein 2017.

7. Consumer surplus and Oscar Wilde: T. Kane, “Piketty’s Crumbs,” Commentary, April 14, 2016.

8. The term Great Escape is from Deaton 2013. Enlightened economy: Mokyr 2012.

9. Backyard tinkerers: Ridley 2010.

10. Science and technology as causes of the Great Escape: Mokyr 2012, 2014.

11. Natural states versus open economies: North, Wallis, & Weingast 2009. Related argument: Acemoglu & Robinson 2012.

12. Bourgeois virtue: McCloskey 1994, 1998.

13. From Letters Concerning the English Nation, cited in Porter 2000, p. 21.

14. Porter 2000, pp. 21–22.

15. Data on GDP per capita from Maddison Project 2014, displayed in Marian Tupy’s HumanProgress, http://www.humanprogress.org/f1/2785/1/2010/France/United%20Kingdom.

16. The Great Convergence: Mahbubani 2013. Mahbubani credits the term to the columnist Martin Wolf. Radelet (2015) calls it the Great Surge; Deaton (2013) includes it in what he calls the Great Escape.

17. Countries with rapidly growing economies: Radelet 2015, pp. 47–51.