The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Like It Should, Without a Good Story Appended to It." Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.39: 29-40.

-, 2001a, “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment.” International Encyclopedia of the Social

and Behavioral Sciences2048-2051.

-,2001b, Everyday Irrationality: How Pseudo-Scientists, Lunatics, and the Rest of Us Systematically Fail to Think Rationally. Oxford: Westview Press.

-, 2002, "The Ethics of Using or Not Using Statistical Prediction Rules in Psychological

Practice and Related Consulting Activities." Philosophy of Science 69: 178-184.

Dawes, Robyn M., D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl, 1989, “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment.” Science 243:1668-1674.

Dawes, Robyn M., R. Fildes, M. Lawrence, and K. Ord, 1994, “The Past and the Future of Forecasting Research.” International Journal of Forecasting10: 151-159.

Dawes, Robyn M., and T. L. Smith, 1985, “Attitude and Opinion Measurement.” In G. Lindzey and E. Aronson, The Handbook of Social Psychology, Vol. 1. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

de Bellaigue, Eric, de., 2004,British Book Publishing as a Business Since the1960s.London: Thebritish library.

De Bondt, Werner, and Andreas Kappler, 2004, “Luck, Skill, and Bias in Economists’ Forecasts.” Working Paper, Driehaus Center for Behavioral Finance, DePaul University.

De Bondt, Werner F. M., and Richard M. Thaler, 1990, “Do Security Analysts Overreact?” American Economic Review80: 52-57.

Debreu, Gerard, 1959, Théorie de la valeur, Dunod, tr. Theory of Value. New York: Wiley.

de Finetti, Bruno, 1931, 1989, “Probabilism.” Erkenntnis 31: 169-223.

-, 1975, 1995, Filosophia délia probabilita. Milan: Il Saggiatore.

Degeorge, Franзois, Jayendu Patel, and Richard Zeckhauser, 1999, “Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds.” JournalofBusiness 72(1): 1-33.

DeLong, Bradford, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann, 1991. “The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets.” JournalofBusiness 64(1): 1-20.

Dennett,Daniel C, 1995,Darwin’s Dangerous Idea:Evolutionand the Meanings of Life.Newyork: Simon & Schuster.

-, 2003, Freedom Evolves. New York: Penguin Books.

Derman, E., and N. N. Taleb, 2005, “The Illusions of Dynamic Replication.” Quantitative Finance5: 323-326.

De Vany,Arthur,2002,Hollywood Economics: Chaos in the Movie Industry.London: Routledge.

De Vany, Arthur, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Mark Spitznagel, 2004, “Can We Shield Artists from Wild Uncertainty?” presented at the Fort Lauderdale Film Festival Scholar’s Workshop, June 2004.

DiPrete, Thomas A., and Greg Eirich, 2006, “Cumulative Advantage as a Mechanism for Inequality: A Review of Theoretical and Empirical Developments.” Annual Review of Sociology 32: 271-297.

Dominitz, Jeff, and David Grether, 1999, “I Know What You Did Last Quarter: Economic Forecasts of Professional Forecasters.” Working Paper, Caltech.

Donhardt, Gary L., 2004, “In Search of the Effects of Academic Achievement in Postgraduation Earnings.” Research in Higher Education45(3): 271-284.

Dugatkin, Lee Alan,2001,The Imitation Factor: Evolution Beyond the Gene.New York:simon & schuster.

Dunbar, Nicholas,1999,Inventing Money: The Story of Long-Term Capital Management and theLegends Behind It. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dunning, D., D. W. Griffin, J. Milojkovic, and L. Ross, 1990, “The Overconfidence Effect in Social Prediction.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology58: 568-581.

Dye, Guillaume, 2004, A review of Lorenzo Perilli’s Menodoto di Nicomedia, Munich and Leipzig: K. G. Saur,in Bryn Mawr Classical Review, December20.

Easterwood, John C, and Stacey R. Nutt, 1999, “Inefficiency in Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?” Journal of Finance 54: 1777-1797.

Eatwell, J., M. Milgate, and P. Newman, eds., 1987, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics. London: Macmillan.

Eco, Umberto, 1992,How to Travel with a Salmon and Other Essays.San Diego: Harcourt.

-, 1994, Six Walks in the Fictional Woods. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.