The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Collins, Randall,1998,The Sociology of Philosophies: A Global Theory of Intellectual Change.cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

Conley, D.,1999,Being Black, Living in the Red: Race, Wealth and Social Policy in America.Losangeles: University of California Press.

Cooper, John M., 2004, Knowledge, Nature, and the Good, Chapter 1: “Method and Science in on Ancient Medicine.” Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Cootner, Paul H.,1964,The Random Character of Stock Market Prices.London: Risk Books.

Cosmides, L., and J. Tooby, 1990, “Is the Mind a Frequentist?” Paper presented at the 31st annual meeting of the Psychonomics Society, New Orleans, La.

-, 1992, “Cognitive Adaptations for Social Exchange.” In Jerome H. Barkow, Leda Cosmides, and John Tooby, eds., The Adapted Mind. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

-, 1996, "Are Humans Good Intuitive Statisticians After All? Rethinking Some Conclusions

from the Literature on Judgment and Uncertainty." Cognition 58(1): 187-276.

Courtillot, V., 1995, La vie en catastrophes. Paris: Fayard.

Courtillot, V., and Y. Gaudemer, 1996, “Effects of Mass-Extinctions on Biodiversity.” Nature 381: 146-147.

Cousin, Victor,1820, Cours d’histoire de la philosophie morale au dix-huitiиme siиcle. Paris: Lad-range.

Cover, T. M., and J. A. Thomas, 1991, Elements ofInformationTheory. New York: Wiley.

Cowley, Michelle, and Ruth M. J. Byrne, 2004, “Chess Master’s Hypothesis Testing.” In Kenneth Forbus, Dedre Gentner, and Terry Regier, eds., Proceedings of 26th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, CogSci2004,Mahwah, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

Crosby, Alfred W.,1997,The Measure of Reality: Quantification and Western Society,1250-1600. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly, 1993, Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience. New York: Perennial Press.

-, 1998,Finding Flow: The Psychology of Engagement with Everyday Life.New York:

Basic Books.

Cutler, David, James Poterba, and Lawrence Summers, 1989, “What Moves Stock Prices?” Journal of Portfolio Management15: 4-12.

Dally J. M., N. J. Emery, and N. S. Clayton, 2006, “Food-Catching Western Scrub-Jays Keep Track of Who Was Watching When.” Science 312 (5780): 1,662-1,665.

Damasio, Antonio,1994,Descartes’Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain.New York:avon Books.

-, 2000,The Feeling of What Happens: Body and Emotion in the Making of Consciousness.

New York: Harvest Books.

-, 2003,Looking for Spinoza: Joy, Sorrow and the Feeling Brain.New York: Harcourt.

Dannefer, D., 1987, “Aging as Intracohort Differentiation: Accentuation, the Matthew Effect and the Life Course.” Sociological Forum2: 211-236.

-, 2003, "Cumulative Advantage/Disadvantage and the Life Course: Cross-fertilizing Age

and Social Science."Journal of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences58: 327-337.

Darwin, Charles, 1859, On Natural Selection. London: Penguin Books, Great Ideas.

Daston, L. J., 1988, Classical Probability in the Enlightenment. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

David, Florence Nightingale,1962,Games, Gods, and Gambling: A History of Probability andStatistical Ideas. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Dawes, Robyn M., 1980, “Confidence in Intellectual Judgments vs. Confidence in Perceptual Judgments.” In E. D. Lantermann and H. Feger, eds., Similarity and Choice: Papers in Honor of Clyde Coombs. Bern, Switzerland: Huber.

-,1988,Rational Choice in an Uncertain World.New York: Harcourt.

-, 1989, “Measurement Models for Rating and Comparing Risks: The Context of AIDS.”

Conference Proceedings Health Services Research Methodology: A Focus on AIDS,September1989.

-, 1999, "A Message from Psychologists to Economists: Mere Predictability Doesn’t Matter