Pandemic

Streicher frowned before reaching for the open laptop computer in front of him. "Please." He pointed at the screen on the far wall. He clicked the mouse and a map of China appeared. He tapped a key and the map zoomed in on northern China. An area in the screen's center, roughly the shape of Florida, turned light pink. "Gansu Province."

Streicher clicked the mouse again. A small red "X" appeared north of the largest regional center, Jiayuguan City. "First known infection was documented on a farm fifty miles north of Jiayuguan City."

"Same old story, Haldane," McLeod cut in. "Pigs, sheep, ducks, and Farmer Chan all drinking out of the same water supply. Common waste system, too. Shite! The whole farm probably ate with the same pair of bloody chopsticks. Their viruses allowed to — no. hell, encouraged to — mingle, share DNA secrets, and superinfect each other's hosts. Lo and behold we get the second coming of the plague."

McLeod waved to My Li Yuen in a belated "no offense" gesture, but his diatribe had no visible effect on her. His acknowledgment, however, caused her to flush. "I know, Duncan," she said in a slight high-pitched voice with only a trace of an accent. "You don't hate all Chinese, right?" she giggled.

"Very true. Especially the Taiwanese. Marvelous folks. Shite, Milly, truth be known, I've got a gigantic crush on you." He blew her a kiss, which drew another giggle and a deeper shade of red from the microbiologist.

"As I was saying," Streicher said, unamused. "According to the authorities the first four cases, two adults and two children, developed symptoms just over three weeks ago. "

"Has the Chinese government played ball so far?" Haldane asked.

Nantal nodded. "Noah, it seems they've learned from their last experience," he said, without specifying the SARS outbreak. "They're the ones who invited us to come."

"Fucking great!" hollered the redheaded Scot "I was wondering where to send the thank-you card!"

Like a child whose story had been interrupted one time too many, Streicher huffed and raised his voice louder. "Over the ensuing two weeks we see direct spread to neighboring farms. Eighty infected, twenty dead. The notable feature in this pocket of infection is the very short incubation period. Two to three days."

Streicher tapped the button and a few more Xs appeared in a cluster around the first one. "From these index cases," he said, using the medical term for the first patient or patients responsible for local outbreaks, "we see spread to the towns north of Jiayuguan. Hundreds more infected. Same rapid incubation."

"Mortality rate?" Haldane asked.

"The early figures suggest roughly twenty-five percent" Streicher ran a hand through his thick blond hair. "Appar. ently, the young and the healthy are worst affected."

"Oh…" Haldane muttered. "That sounds familiar."

Jean Nantal read the recognition on Haldane's face. "Ah, yes. We've been wondering about that, too. Maybe the Spanish Flu has come back to visit, NON?" Nantal grinned in his disarming way. "It's a bit premature to know."

"The first case was documented four days ago in Jiayuguan City," Streicher said. "According to local authorities they've only had a handful of cases in the city itself, but it is early."

"Very." Haldane nodded. "And the hospitals?"

"Coping quite well." Nantal clasped his hands and shook them in a victorious gesture. "They've been doing better so far than with the SARS outbreak. No documented spread of the infection within hospitals. You see, Noah? There is a silver lining."

Not much of one, Haldane thought, but he nodded without comment.

Nantal turned to Yuen. "Milly, can you share a little background on the microbiology?"

Yuen shuffled through her notes. Though she wasn't reading them, she kept her eyes fixed on the pages as she spoke. "We've only had the blood samples for under a week, but the bacterial and viral cultures are negative thus far. We're running standard phenotypical and molecular viral diagnostics. We have run PCR, polymerase chain reaction, to every common viral family… so far nothing conclusive."

Haldane picked up on her hesitancy. "What, Milly?" he asked.

Yuen looked up from the papers and caught Haldane's gaze. "It's not hard science or anything, but some of the RNA probes were weakly positive for influenza."

"So it's a strain of the flu?" Haldane asked.

"We can't say that," Yuen said and dropped her eyes to her notes again. "All we're testing for is viral DNA and RNA. The source patients might have all been exposed to an influenza outbreak ten years ago, and we're just seeing the remnants of the dead virus in their blood."

"No causality." Haldane nodded. "I understand, but what does your gut say, Milly? Is this the newest strain of the flut'

"No," Yuen said, but then her voice wavered. "I can't say for sure, but it's more like this microbe cross-reacts with the influenza on testing."

"Close but no cigar, huh?" Haldane said.