Command and Control

Even relatively harmless motives — such as the urge to defy authority, the desire to show off, and “the kind of curiosity which does not quite believe the consequences of one’s own acts”—could cause a nuclear detonation.

The unauthorized destruction of a city or a military base would be disastrous, and Iklé addressed the question of whether such an event could precipitate something even worse. Nikita Khrushchev had recently claimed that “an accidental atomic bomb explosion may well trigger another world war.” The scenario seemed far-fetched but couldn’t be entirely dismissed. Amid the chaos following an explosion, it might not be clear that the blast had been caused by a technical malfunction, human error, a madman, or saboteurs. The country where the detonation occurred might think that a surprise attack had begun and retaliate. Its adversary, fearing that sort of retaliation, might try to strike first.

Iklé believed that, at the moment, the risk of accidental war was small. He thought the leadership of both the United States and the Soviet Union would carefully investigate the cause of a single detonation before launching an all-out attack. And he felt confident that America could withstand the loss of a major city without much long-term social or economic upheaval. But an unauthorized detonation in the United States or Western Europe could have “unfortunate political consequences.” It could fuel support for disarmament and neutrality, increase opposition to American bases overseas, weaken the NATO alliance, and facilitate “a peaceful expansion of the Soviet sphere of influence.” Indeed, the military and political benefits to the Soviet Union would be so great that it might be tempted to sabotage an American weapon.

“The U.S. defense posture could be substantially strengthened by nuclear weapon safeguards that would give a nearly absolute guarantee against unauthorized detonations,” Iklé concluded. He urged that more research be conducted on nuclear weapon safety, that new safety mechanisms be added to warheads and bombs, that Air Force personnel be screened more thoroughly for psychiatric problems. And he offered one solution to the problem of unauthorized use that seemed obvious, yet hadn’t been tried: put combination locks on nuclear weapons. That way they could be detonated only by someone who knew the right code. None of these measures, however, could make weapons perfectly safe, and the United States had to be prepared for accidental or unauthorized detonations.

In a subsequent RAND report, Iklé offered suggestions on how to minimize the harm of an accidental nuclear explosion:

If such an accident occurred in a remote area, so that leakage to the press could be prevented, no information ought to be made public…. If the accident has been compromised and public statements become necessary, they should depict the accident as an occurrence which has no bearing on the safety of other weapons. In some circumstances it might be treated as if it had been an experiment…. Internally, of course, information about the accident should not be suppressed.

An official “board of inquiry” should be established, headed by military experts and prominent politicians, as an “important device for temporizing.” Ideally, the board would take a few months to reach any conclusions:

During this delaying period the public information program should provide the news media with all possible news about rehabilitation and relief. There is always a strong and continued interest in such news after a disaster. Within a relatively short time the interest in rehabilitation tends to crowd out reports about destruction and casualties.

If an American bomber launched an unauthorized attack on the Soviet Union, Iklé argued that the United States should “avoid public self-implication and delay the release of any details about the accident.” Then it should begin secret diplomatic negotiations with the Soviets. Amid the tensions of the Cold War, thanks to a military strategy that made the United States and its NATO allies completely dependent on nuclear weapons, Iklé’s thinking reached a perverse but logical conclusion. After the accidental detonation of an atomic bomb, the president might have a strong incentive to tell the Soviet Union the truth — and lie to the American people.

* * *