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Scientists can now predict with reasonable certainty, up to 1 year in advance, the onset of episodes of the phenomenon known as the El Nińo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This interaction between the ocean and atmosphere is linked to fluctuations in precipitation and temperature throughout the tropics and into higher latitudes, including the United States. These fluctuations can result in severe flooding and harsh droughts. As evidenced by the 1996 drought in the southwestern United States, extreme climatic events have serious implications for economic and social systems. The USGCRP plays a leading role in ongoing global endeavor to develop and enhance prediction capabilities, and to apply experimental forecasts to real problems of economic planning and development in climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water, and public health.

2) Climate Change over Decades to Centuries, with the goal of understanding, predicting, assessing, and preparing for changes in the climate and the global environment that will result from the influences of projected changes on population, energy use, land cover, and other natural and human-induced factors.

Progress toward this goal will provide information needed by decisionmakers considering adaptive or mitigative responses to the projected changes in climate and associated environmental and societal impacts. The information will also assist planners and managers with responsibilities for the design of infrastructure and other major facilities, sustained management of natural resource-based systems, and long-term planning in the financial sector.

The scientific community, through the IPCC Second Assessment Report, projects that during the next century and beyond human influences will alter the climate to an extent almost as great as the changes associated with going from past glacial to interglacial periods. This unprecedented rate of change will likely have significant impacts on forests, agriculture, water supplies, and human health. While much scientific progress has been made over the past few decades in developing a broad-scale understanding of the causes of global climate change, significant gaps remain, particularly with regard to estimating regional changes and understanding potential consequences and how society can mitigate or adapt to these changes. The USGCRP will continue to play a leading role in reducing scientific uncertainties in the understanding of the physical climate system while broadening research to improve the understanding of the impacts of climate change on natural resources and socioeconomic sectors.

3) Changes in Ozone, UV Radiation, and Atmosphere Chemistry, with the goal of understanding and characterizing the chemical changes in the global atmosphere and their consequences for human health and well-being.

Progress toward this goal will provide information to assist policymakers in protecting human heath, preserving the cleansing and protective qualities of the atmosphere, and ensuring that new compounds do not lead to inadvertent environmental consequences.

The USGCRP provides a framework for a comprehensive and integrated research effort that provides information of great value to policymakers. For example, through USGCRP-supported research, emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) from human activities have been unambiguously identified as the cause of the Antarctic ozone hole. Projections that large increases in CFCs emissions would lead to large losses of stratospheric ozone underline the agreement to phase out CFC use and observations of declining demonstrate the efficiency of policies adopted to protect the ozone layer.

Changes in land Cover and Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems, with the goal of providing a stronger scientific basis for understanding, predicting, assessing and responding to the causes and consequences of changes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems resulting from human-induced and natural influences.

Progress toward this goal will provide a stronger scientific basis for developing environmental and natural resource practices that are environmentally sound and practical and that will ensure ecosystems yield sustainable benefits to humankind.

The USGCRP supports research projects to inventory the current and cover of the Earth and to document changes; to improve understanding of the dynamics of land and land-use change and how terrestrial ecosystems react to change; and to document and understand chemical, physical, and biological processes in the oceans and their relationship with the carbon cycle and marine life.

1. What does U.S. Global Change Research Program provides?

What are the functions of this Program?

2. What are the goals of U.S. Global Change Research Program?

3. What priority issues has NRC formulated?