Заблуждения толпы

4. См.: Hans C. Breiter and Bruce R. Rosen, “Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Brain Reward Circuitry in the Human,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences Vol. 877, No. 1 (February 6, 2006): p. 523–547; John P. O’Doherty et al., “Neural Responses during Anticipation of Primary Taste Reward,” Neuron Vol. 33, No. 5 (February 28, 2002): p. 815–826; Gregory S. Berns et al., “Predictability Modulates Human Brain Response to Reward,” The Journal of Neuroscience Vol. 21, No. 8 (April 15, 2001): p. 2793–2798; and Wolfram Schultz et al., “A Neural Substrate of Prediction and Reward,” Science Vol. 275, No. 5307 (March 14, 1997): p. 1593–1599.

5. См.: Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2000), 15.

6. См.: David Halberstam, The Best and the Brightest (New York: Random House, 1972).

7. См.: Craig R. Whitney, “Cult Horror Maims Prominent French Family,” The New York Times, December 27,1995. See also Alan Riding, “Chalets Bum‐2 Others Dead in Canada: 48 in Sect Are Killed in Grisly Rituals,” The New York Times, and Gustav Niebuhr, “Victims in Mass Deaths Linked to Magical Sects,” New York Times, both October 6, 1994; Alan Riding, “Swiss Examine Conflicting Signs in Cult Deaths,” The New York Times, October 7,1994; “18 Sought in 3 Nations; Linked to Doomsday Sect,” The New York Times, December 22,1995; Craig R. Whitney, “16 Burned Bodies Found in France; Cult Tie Suspected,” The New York Times, December 24, 1995; and “French Say 2 Cult Members Shot Others,” The New York Times, December 28,1995.

8. См.: David Gelertner, “A Religion of Special Effects,” The New York Times, March 30, 1997.

9. См.: Todd Bersaglieri et al., “Genetic Signatures of Strong Recent Positive Selection at the Lactase Gene,” American Journal of Human Genetics Vol. 74, No. 6 (April 2004): p. 1111–1120; Tatum S. Simonson et al., “Genetic Evidence for High-Altitude Adaptation in Tibet,” Science Vol. 329, No. 5987 (July 2, 2010): p. 72–75; and Xin Yi et al., “Sequencing of 50 Human Exomes Reveals Adaptation to High Altitude,” ibid., p. 75–78.

10. Cм.: Robert Boyd and Peter J. Richerson, “Culture and the evolution of human cooperation,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Vol. 364, No. 1533 (November 12, 2009): p. 3281–3288.

11. См.: Melanie C. Green and Timothy C. Brock, “The Role of Transportation in the Persuasiveness of Public Narratives,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Vol. 79, No. 5 (2000): p. 701–721.

12. См.: Robert Trivers, The Folly of Fools (New York: Basic Books, 2011), p. 9–11.

13. См.: Matthew Haag, “Robert Jeffress, Pastor Who Said Jews Are Going to Hell, Led Prayer at Jerusalem Embassy,” The New York Times, May 14, 2018.

14. См.: Pew Research Center, “Jesus Christ’s Return to Earth,” July 14,2010, https:// www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2010/07/14/jesus-christs-return-to-earth/, дата обращения 29.08.2019.

15. См.: Jeff Sharlet, “Jesus Killed Mohammed: The Crusade for a Christian Military,” Harpers, May 2009, 31^-3. See also Laurie Goodstein, “Air Force Chaplain Tells of Academy Proselytizing,” The New York Times, May 12, 2005, and Neela Banerjee, “Religion and Its Role Are in Dispute at the Service Academies, The New York Times, June 25, 2008.

16. См.: Daniel Ellsberg, The Doomsday Machine (New York: Bloomsbury, 2017), p. 64–89.

17. См.: Francis Galton, “Vox Populi” Nature Vol. 75, No. 1949 (March 7, 1907): p. 450–451; and Galton, Letters to the Editor, Nature Vol. 75, No. 1952 (March 28, 1907): p. 509–510.

18. Успевшие стать хрестоматийными современные примеры таковы: потеря ракеты с термоядерной боеголовкой в Средиземном море в 1966 году и гибель атомной подводной лодки «Скорпион» (USS Scorpion) в Атлантике в 1968 году. В обоих случаях средняя статистическая оценка их местоположения отличалась от фактической всего на 200 метров, что резко контрастировало даже с лучшими индивидуальными оценками, См. Sherry Sontag and Christopher Drew, Blind Man’s Bluff (New York: HarperPaperbacks, 1999), p. 63–65, 96–117.

19. См.: Galton, op. cit., and Galton, “The Ballot-Box,” Nature Vol. 75, No. 1952 (March 28, 1907): p. 509; Friedrich von Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” American Economic Review Vol. 35, No. 4 (September 1945): p. 519–530; и James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds (New York: Anchor, 2005).

20. Cм.: Joel Greenblatt and Barry Ritholtz, Masters in Business, April 20, 2018, https://assets.bwbx.io/av/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/vcNFFMk_gBGg/v2.mp3.

21. См.: Frederich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001), p. 70.

22. См.: Charles Mackay, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions, 1:3.

23. См.: F. Scott Fitzgerald, “The Crack-Up,” Esquire (February 1936), http://www.pbs.org/wnet/americanmas-ters/f-scott-fitzgerald-essay-the-crack-up/1028/, дата обращения 05.03.2016.

24. См.: Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005).