In the framework of the conflict between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian President Vladimir Putin, angered by U.S. intrusion in his wars in Georgia, Syria, Ukraine, the military seizure of Crimea, and pressures on NATO allies Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, Putin may be unleashing Trump’s challenge as a way to exact revenge on the United States. Putin Biographer Masha Gessen, author of Man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin told CNN, “There’s a really aggressive posture to both men. Putin respects fighters and he respects aggression and he doesn’t respect sort of calm and deliberation… He wants a manly adversary. He wants somebody he can understand.”49 Putin would also want a President of the United States who would work with Putin to attain Russia’s goals above all. Trump’s bluster and bravado is breezily transparent. He is exactly as they taught in KGB school: An egoist, a liar, but talented –he knows the mind of the wrestling loving, under educated, authoritarian admiring white male populous. This is raw material Vladimir could use. Trump would just need to be coddled, supported, flattered, and indirectly tasked by the oligarchy and the conservative Americans who see Russia as a model for American authoritarianism. It would not be hard to believe that Trump could be convinced he could reestablish U.S.–Russian relations. In Putin’s favor, of course. Trump wants money and Russia has money, prestige, and the kind of women Trump likes. Trump’s worldview on subjects are dear to Russia’s heart, including a hands-off policy on the former occupied nations of Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania; as well as tough talk about not supporting NATO. These would all be hallmarks of Trump’s campaign, almost as if Putin himself had written these goals. Needless to say Putin did not have to—everyone who works for him and who desires Russian cash understands that these are the political minimums to even start to discuss any arrangement with the East.
Putin could not do this with just smiles and comments. He would need to create an operational organization that would manage the U.S. elections. It could be based on the same Information Warfare Campaigns that degraded the Baltic States using the new Russian strategy of Hybrid political warfare. Hybrid war is an ever-shifting mélange of media propaganda, cyberwarfare, and touches of military adventurism that could help elect Trump and lead to the break-up of the European Union and NATO. Putin’s vision would be to use the sycophant Trump as President to subordinate America to the role of junior partner to a rising Russia.
How to make him the political frontrunner? No problem. Russia has quite a bit of experience in this field.
Master Class in “Kompromat”
In 1948, American diplomat George Kennan wrote a paper called “On Organizing Political Warfare,” where he defined Political Warfare as:
The employment of all the means at a nation’s command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives. Such operations are both overt and covert. They range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures (as ERP [Economic Recovery Plan i.e. the Marshall Plan]), and “white” propaganda, to such covert operations as clandestine support of “friendly” foreign elements, “black” psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.50
His writings were taken very seriously by many in defense and academia but not so seriously as the Soviet Union’s KGB. The KGB was so adept at political warfare that Russians used a word for exploiting situations where blackmail can be applied, embarrassment can stifle activism, and words or images can defame those in power and limit their ability to respond to threats or even warfare. That word is Kompromat—which translates as “compromising material.” This can include both real and fabricated information, but it is always applied judiciously and maliciously. When hit with Kompromat, you have entered the big leagues of Putin’s animosity.
The Kremlin has harnessed the power of this tool to defeat its enemies both domestically and abroad. Amanda Taub wrote a brilliant primer on the subject in The New York Times. She explained the simple processes that can have a huge impact: