The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Varian, Hal R., 1989, “Differences of Opinion in Financial Markets.” In Courtenay C. Stone, éd., Financial Risk: Theory, Evidence and Implications: Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.Boston: Kitiwer Academicpublishers.

Véhel,Jacques Levy, and Christian Walter,2002, Les marchésfractals:Efficience,ruptures,ettendancessur les marchés financiers.Paris: PUF.

Veyne, Paul, 1971, Comment on écrit l’histoire. Paris: éditions du Seuil.

-, 2005, L’Empire gréco-romain. Paris: éditions du Seuil.

Vogelstein,Bert,DavidLane, andArnold J. Levine, 2000,"Surfing the P53Network." Nature 408: 307-310.

Voit,Johannes,2001,The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets.Heidelberg: Springer.

vonMises, R., 1928,Wahrscheinlichkeit, Statistik und Wahrheit.Berlin: Springer. Translated and reprinted as Probability, Statistics, and Truth. New York: Dover,1957.

von Plato, Jan,1994,Creating Modern Probability.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

von Winterfeldt, D., and W Edwards,1986,Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Wagenaar, Willern, and Gideon B. Keren,1985,"Calibration of Probability Assessments by Professional Blackjack Dealers, Statistical Experts, and Lay People." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes36: 406-416.

-, 1986,"Does the Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of

Experts." In Erik Hollnagel, Giuseppe Mancini, and David D. Woods, Intelligent Design Support in Process Environments. Berlin: Springer.

Waller, John,2002,Fabulous Science: Fact and Fiction in the History of Scientific Discovery.Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Wallerstein, Immanuel,1999,"Braudel andInterscience: APreacher to Empty Pews?" Paper presented at the 5thJournées Braudeliennes,Binghamton University, Binghamton, N.Y.

Wallsten,T. S., D.V. Budescu, I. Erev, and A. Diederich,1997,"Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making10: 243-268.

Wason, P. C,1960,"On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task." Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology12: 129-140.

Watts, D. J.,2003,Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age.New York: W W Norton and Company.

Watts,D. J.,andS. H.Strogatz,1998,"Collective Dynamics of ‘Small-world’ Networks." Nature393: 440^42

Watts, Duncan,2002,"A Simple Model of Global Cascades on Random Networks." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences99(9): 5766-5771.

Wegner, Daniel M.,2002,The Illusion of Conscious Will.Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

Weinberg, Steven,2001,"Facing Up: Science and Its Cultural Adversaries." Working Paper, Harvard University.

Weintraub, Roy E.,2002,How Economics Became a Mathematical Science,Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press.

Wells, G. L., and Harvey, J. H.,1977,"Do People Use Consensus Information in Making Causal Attributions?" Journal of Personality and Social Psychology35: 279-293.

Weron, R.,2001,"Levy-Stable Distributions Revisited: Tail Index> 2Does Not Exclude the Levy-Stable Regime." International Journal of Modern Physics12(2): 209-223.

Wheatcroft, Andrew,2003,Infidels: A History of Conflict Between Christendom and Islam.New York: Random House.

White, John,1982,Rejection.Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

Whitehead, Alfred North,1925,Science and the Modern World.New York: The Free Press.

Williams, Mark A., Simon A. Moss, John L. Bradshaw, and Nicole J. Rinehart,2002,"Brief Report: Random Number Generation in Autism." Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders32(1): 43^7.

Williams, Robert J., and Dennis Connolly,2006,"Does Learning About the Mathematics of Gambling Change Gambling Behavior?" Psychology of Addictive Behaviors20(1): 62-68.