The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

-, 1993, "An Explanation of the Hard-Easy Effect in Studies of Realism of Confidence in

One’s General Knowledge." European journal of Cognitive Psychology5:55-71.

-, 1994, “The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-guided Selection of Almanac Items.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes57:226-246.

Juslin, P., and H. Olsson, 1997, “Thurstonian and Brunswikian Origins of Uncertainty in Judgment: A Sampling Model of Confidence in Sensory Discrimination.” Psychological Review 104:344-366.

Juslin, P., H. Olsson, and M. Björkman, 1997, “Brunswikian and Thurstonian Origins of Bias in Probability Assessment: On the Interpretation of Stochastic Components of Judgment.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making10: 189-209.

Juslin, P., H. Olsson, and A. Winman, 1998, “The Calibration Issue: Theoretical Comments on Suantak, Bolger, and Ferrell.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes73:3-26.

Kadane, J. B., and S. Lichtenstein, 1982, “A Subjectivist View of Calibration.” Report No. 82-86, Eugene, Ore.: Decision Research.

Kahneman, D., 2003, “Why People Take Risks.” In Gestirela vulnerabilitа eVincertezza;unincontro internazionale fra studiosi e capi di impresa.Rome: Italian Institute of Risk Studies.

Kahneman, D., E. Diener, and N. Schwarz, eds., 1999, Well-being: The Foundations of Hedonic Psychology. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

Kahneman, D., and S. Frederick, 2002, “Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment.” In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman, eds., 2002.

Kahneman, D., J. L. Knetsch, and R. H. Thaler, 1986, “Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions.” Journal of Business59(4): 251-278.

Kahneman, D., and D. Lovallo, 1993, “Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk-taking.” Management Science 39: 17-31.

Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1972, “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness.” Cognitive Psychology3: 430-454.

-, 1973, “On the Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review 80: 237-251.

-, 1979, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometrica 46(2):

171-185.

-, 1982, “On the Study of Statistical Intuitions.” In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky,

eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge Universitypress.

-, 1996, “On the Reality of Cognitive Illusions.” Psychological Review 103: 582-591.

-, eds., 2000, Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

-, 1991, “Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias.” In D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, eds., 2000.

Kaizoji, Taisei, 2003, “Scaling Behavior in Land Markets.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 326(1-2): 256-264.

Kaizoji, Taisei, and Michiyo Kaizoji, 2004, “Power Law for Ensembles of Stock Prices.” Physica

A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 344(1-2), Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis 4 (APFA4) (December 1): 240-243.

Katz, J. Sylvan, 1999, “The Self-similar Science System.” Research Policy 28(5): 501-517.

Keen, Steve, 2001, Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Classes. London: Pluto Press.

Kemp, C, and J. B. Tenenbaum, 2003, “Theory-based Induction.” Proceedings of the Twenty-fifth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Boston, Mass.

Keren, G., 1988, “On the Ability of Assessing Non-verdical Perceptions: Some Calibration Studies.” Acta Psychologies 67: 95-119.

-, 1991, “Calibration and Probability Judgments: Conceptual and Methodological Issues.”

Acta Psychologica 77: 217-273.

Keynes, John Maynard, 1920, Treatise on Probability. London: Macmillan.

-, 1937, “The General Theory.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 51: 209-233.

Kidd, John B., 1970, “The Utilization of Subjective Probabilities in Production Planning.” Acta Psychologica 34(2/3): 338-347.

Kim, E. Han, Adair Morse, and Luigi Zingales, 2006, “Are Elite Universities Losing Their Competitive Edge?” NBER Working Paper 12245.

Kindleberger, Charles P., 2001, Manias, Panics, and Crashes. New York: Wiley.