Rogue Forces

President Hirsiz averted his eyes from the fiery general. “Another attack inside Iraq…I don’t know, General,” he said, shaking his head. “This is something that needs to be discussed with the American and Iraqi governments. They must—”

“Pardon me for saying so, sir, but both governments are ineffectual and care nothing for Turkish security,” General Ozek said angrily. “Baghdad is perfectly willing to let the Kurds do whatever they please as long as the oil revenues flow south. The Americans are pulling out of Iraq as fast as they can. Besides, they have never lifted a finger to stop the PKK. Even though they rail on and on about the global war on terror and have labeled the PKK a terrorist outfit, except for occasionally tossing us a few photos or phone intercepts, they haven’t done a damn thing to help us.”

Hirsiz fell silent, worriedly puffing on his cigarette. “Besir is right, sir,” Guzlev, the military chief of staff, said. “This is the time we have been waiting for. Baghdad is clinging by its fingernails to keep its government intact; they don’t have the power to secure their own capital, much less the Kurdish frontier. America has stopped replacing combat brigades in Iraq. There are just three brigades in the north of Iraq, centered on Irbil and Mosul—almost no one on the border.”

Guzlev paused, noting no opposition to his comments, then added, “But I suggest more than just Special Teams involvement, sir.” He looked at the defense minister, Hasan Cizek, and National Security Council secretary-general Sahin. “I propose a full-scale invasion of northern Iraq.”

“What?” President Hirsiz exclaimed. “Are you joking, General?”

“Out of the question, General,” Prime Minister Akas immediately added. “We would be condemned by our friends and the entire world!”

“To what end, General?” Foreign Minister Hamarat asked. “We send in thousands of troops to root out a few thousand PKK rebels? Do you propose we occupy Iraqi territory?”

“I propose a buffer zone, sir,” Guzlev said. “The Americans helped Israel set up a buffer zone in southern Lebanon that was effective in keeping Hezbollah fighters out of Israel. We should do the same.”

Hirsiz looked at his defense minister, silently hoping for another voice of opposition. “Hasan?”

“It’s possible, Mr. President,” the defense minister said, “but it would not be a secret and it would be hugely expensive. The operation would take a fourth of our entire military force, perhaps up to a third, and it would certainly entail calling up the reserve forces. It would take months. Our actions would be seen by all—first of all by the Americans. Whether we are successful depends on how the Americans react.”

“General Sahin?”

“The Americans are in the process of an extended drawdown of forces throughout Iraq,” the secretary-general of the Turkish National Security Council said. “Because it is relatively quiet and the Kurdish autonomous government is better organized than the central government in Baghdad, northern Iraq has perhaps twenty thousand American troops still in the region, assisting in guarding oil pipelines and facilities. They are scheduled to go down to just two combat brigades within a year.”

“Two combat brigades—for all of northern Iraq? That doesn’t seem realistic.”

“The Stryker brigades are very potent weapon systems, sir, very fast and agile—they should not be underestimated,” Sahin warned. “However, sir, we expect the Americans to employ private contractors to supply most of the surveillance, security, and support services. This falls in line with President Joseph Gardner’s new policy of resting and restoring ground forces while he increases the size and power of their Navy.”

“Then it is possible, sir,” Defense Minister Cizek said. “The Iraqi Kurds’ peshmerga forces have the equivalent of two infantry divisions and one mechanized division, centered on Mosul, Irbil, and the Kirkuk oil fields—a third of the size of our forces that are within marching distance of the border. Even if the PKK has the equivalent of a full infantry division, and the United States throws their entire ground forces against us, we are still at parity—and, as Suntzu wrote, if your forces are of equal strength: attack. We can do this, Mr. President.”

“We can mobilize our forces within three months, with ozel tim scouting enemy positions and preparing to disrupt the private contractors performing surveillance on the border region,” General Ozek added. “The mercenaries hired by the Americans are there only to earn money. If a fight is brewing, they will run for cover and hide behind regular military forces.”

“And what if the Americans stand and fight to help the Kurds?”