That is what it means to say that although what happens on the lower level is
A Hat-tip to the Spectrum of Unpredictability
I am not suggesting that the invisible, swarming, chaotic, microscopic level of the world can be totally swept under the rug and forgotten. Although in many circumstances we rely on the familiar macroworld to be completely predictable to us, there are many other circumstances where we are very aware of not being able to predict what will happen. Let me first, however, make a little list of some sample predictables that we rely on unthinkingly all the time.
When we turn our car’s steering wheel, we know for sure where our car will go; we don’t worry that a band of recalcitrant little molecules might mutiny and sabotage our turn. When we turn a burner to “high” under a saucepan filled with water, we know that the water will boil within a few minutes. We can’t predict the pattern of bubbles inside the boiling water, but we really don’t give a hoot about that. When we take a soup can down from the shelf in the grocery store and place it in our cart, we know for sure that it will not turn into a bag of potato chips, will not burn our hand, will not be so heavy that we cannot lift it, will not slip through the grill of the cart, will sit still if placed vertically, and so forth. To be sure, if we lay the soup can down horizontally and start wheeling the cart around the store, the can will roll about in the cart in ways that are not predictable to us, though they lie completely within the bounds of our expectations and have little interest or import to us, aside from being mildly annoying.
When we speak words, we know that they will reach the ears of our listeners without being changed by the intermediary pressure waves into other words, will even come through with the exact intonations that we impart to them. When we pour milk into a glass, we know just how far to tilt the milk container to get the desired amount of flow without spilling a drop. We control the milk and we get exactly the result we want.
There is no surprise in any of this! And I could extend this list forever, and it would soon grow very boring, because you know it all instinctively and take it totally for granted. Every day of our lives, we all depend in a million tacit ways on innumerable rock-solid predictabilities about how things happen in the visible, tangible world (the solidity of rocks being yet another of those countless rock-solid predictabilities).
On the other hand, there’s also plenty of unpredictability “up here” in the macroworld. How about a second list, giving typical unpredictables?
When we toss a basketball towards a basket, we don’t have any idea whether it will go through or not. It might bounce off the backboard and then teeter for a couple of seconds on the rim, keeping us in suspense and perhaps even holding an entire crowd in tremendous, tingling tension. A championship basketball game could go one way or the other, depending on a microscopic difference in the position of the pinky of the player who makes a desperate last-second shot.
When we begin to utter a thought, we have no idea what words we will wind up using nor which grammatical pathways we will wind up following, nor can we predict the speech errors or the facts about our unconscious mind that our little slips will reveal. Usually such revelations will make little difference, but once in a while — in a job interview, say — they can have huge repercussions. Think of how people jump on a politician whose unconscious mind chooses a word loaded with political undertones (
When we ski down a slope, we don’t know if we’re going to fall on our next turn or not. Every turn is a risk — slight for some, large for others. A broken bone can come from an event whose cause we will never fathom, because it is so deeply hidden in detailed interactions between the snow and our ski. And the tiniest detail about the manner in which we fall can make all the difference as to whether we suffer a life-changing multiple break or a just a trivial hairline fracture.