HOW DO YOU SLAY A DRAGON?

An honest and principled person who is critical of the current regime in Russia is right to ask: what’s the problem in moving from a bad authoritarian state to a good democratic one?

Indeed, at first glance everything looks relatively simple. After the democratic forces have triumphed (however this is accomplished), the first step must be to call a Constituent (constitutional) Assembly. Next, a new Constitution must be approved; or, at the very least, the old one must have all of the non-constitutional additions removed. Then free and fair elections must be held to create the democratic authorities’ new institutions. This tends to be how everything works. But the reality is somewhat more complicated. We need to look carefully at the details of this plan to be aware of the many practical issues that will arise. And it’s much better to consider all this before we arrive at this juncture.

Common sense tells us that even in the most favourable conditions, the three most basic requirements of the new authorities – calling the Constituent Assembly, bringing the Constitution into line with democratic principles and holding free and fair elections – cannot be achieved in a day or even a month. You need at least a year, probably longer. And this is in ideal circumstances; that clearly won’t be the case for us.

We have to spend more time looking at these conditions, because they’re hugely significant. You don’t have to be a prophet to predict that when Putin goes many people will still retain the habit of living as they have under Putin. This means that genuine changes in life in Russia will take place far more slowly than we would wish.

Far too often we underestimate the power of social inertia. People intrinsically hang on to whatever it is that they’ve grown used to over a number of years. As a result of this, dilapidated organisations keep on working, even though you might have expected them to collapse under the weight of corruption and ineffectiveness. The system shows a miraculous ability to survive against all the odds. But then, when inertia finally takes its toll (and it can’t go on for ever), the system collapses drastically and in a way that’s difficult to control. The stronger the inertia is and the longer it lasts, the greater will be the risks that need to be overcome in the transitional period.

What can any temporary government expect when it attempts to drag Russia out of its past and prepare it for the future?

A sharp rise in poverty due to a worsening budget deficit and limited possibilities for financial flexibility;

Increased disintegration and the growth of a mood of separatism;

Opposition and sabotage from the old elite, especially from the military and the secret services;

Capital flight, directly or tangentially linked to the previous regime;

An increase in crime, especially with the redistribution of property;

A worsening in the international sphere, since the weakening of the situation inside the country will inevitably lead to greater pressure from outside.

In circumstances that will already be difficult, all of these factors could create “the perfect storm”. Whatever good intentions the temporary government may have, it will quickly find itself having to introduce emergency measures. It will have two concurrent agendas, one of top of the other, each interfering with the other. There will be the transformative agenda, aimed at creating the conditions in Russia for stable, constitutional government. And there will be the emergency agenda, that will try to maintain the political gains that have been won, while fighting off opposition from the old society and trying to bring stability to the overall socio-economic and political situation in the country.

Politics is a never-ending process. If this process splits apart, even if just for a few days, not even weeks or months, then chaos will inevitably reign in the gaping chasm this brings. And we’re talking here about a period of one or two years. Confusion and anarchy could produce an even worse regime for Russia than Putin’s. If we don’t think about this in advance, then someone could simply seize the power that’s being trodden underfoot. And whether they would then wish to share that power with anyone else is a serious question.