Maybe the young oaf was right. Maybe I should try the VR simulations.
Instead, he threw himself into the reports on the automated probes that had been sent to Gliese 581. And their power failures. For days he stayed in his quarters, studying, learning, understanding.
The official explanation for the problem by the mission directors back on Earth had been nothing more than waffling, Ignatiev decided as he examined the records. Partial power failure. Only temporary. Within a few weeks it had been corrected.
Anomalies, concluded the official reports. These things happen to highly complex systems. Nothing to worry about. After all, the systems corrected themselves as they were designed to do. And the last three probes worked perfectly well.
Anomalies? Ignatiev asked himself. Anomaly is a word you use when you don’t know what the hell really happened.
He thought he knew.
He took the plots of each probe’s course and overlaid them against the map he’d been making of the fine structure of the interstellar medium. Sure enough, he saw that the probes had encountered a region where the interstellar gas thinned so badly that a ship’s power output declined seriously. There wasn’t enough hydrogen in that region for the fusion generator to run at full power! It was like a bubble in the interstellar gas: a region that was close to empty of hydrogen atoms.
Ignatiev retraced the flight paths of all six of the probes. Yes, the first one plunged straight into the bubble and shut itself down when the power output from the fusion generator dropped so low it could no longer maintain the ship’s systems. The next two skirted the edges of the bubble and experienced partial power failures. That region had been dangerous for the probes. It could be fatal for
He started to write out a report for mission control, then realized before he was halfway finished with the first page that it would take more than six years for his warning to reach Earth, and another six for the mission controllers’ recommendation to get back to him. And who knew how long it would take for those Earthside dunderheads to come to a decision?
“We could all be dead by then,” Ignatiev muttered to himself.
“Your speculations are interesting,” said the AI avatar.
Ignatiev frowned at the image on the screen above his fireplace. “It’s not speculation,” he growled. “It is a conclusion based on observed data.”
“Alexander Alexandrovich,” said the sweetly smiling face, “your conclusion comes not from the observations, but from your interpretation of the observations.”
“Three of the probes had power failures.”
“Temporary failures that were corrected. And three other probes experienced no failure.”
“Those last three didn’t go through the bubble,” he said.
“They all flew the same trajectory, did they not?”
“Not exactly.”
“Within a four percent deviation,” the avatar said, unperturbed.
“But they flew at different times,” Ignatiev pointed out. “The bubble was flowing across their flight paths. The first probe plunged into the heart of it and shut down entirely. For four months! The next two skirted its edges and still suffered power failures.”
“Temporarily,” said the avatar’s image, still smiling patiently. “And the final three probes? They didn’t encounter any problems at all, did they?”
“No,” Ignatiev admitted grudgingly. “The bubble must have flowed past by the time they reached the area.”
“So there should be no problem for us,” the avatar said.
“You think not?” he responded. “Then why are we beginning to suffer a power shortage?”
“The inflowing hydrogen is slightly thinner here than it has been,” said the avatar.
Ignatiev shook his head. “It’s going to get worse. We’re heading into another bubble. I’m sure of it.”
The AI system said nothing.
— 6 —
He spent an intense three weeks mapping the interstellar hydrogen directly ahead of the ship’s position. His worst fears were confirmed.
He checked the specifications of the ship fusion generator and confirmed that its requirement for incoming hydrogen was far higher than the bubble could provide.
Within a few days we’ll start to experience serious power outages, he realized.
What to do?
Despite his disdain for his younger crewmates, despite his loathing of meetings and committees and the kind of groupthink that passed for decision-making, he called a special meeting of the crew.
“All the ship’s systems will shut down?” cried one of the psychotechs. “All of them?”
“What will happen to us during the shutdown?” asked a biologist, her voice trembling.
Calmly, his hands clasped on the conference tabletop, Ignatiev said, “If my measurements of the bubble are accurate—”
“If?” Gregorian snapped. “You mean you’re not sure?”