Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress

41. Recent reviews of climate change: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014; King et al. 2015; W. Nordhaus 2013; Plumer 2015; World Bank 2012a. See also J. Gillis, “Short Answers to Hard Questions About Climate Change,” New York Times, Nov. 28, 2015; “The State of the Climate in 2016,” The Economist, Nov. 17, 2016.

42. 4°C warming must not occur: World Bank 2012a.

43. Effects of different emission scenarios: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014; King et al. 2015; W. Nordhaus 2013; Plumer 2015; World Bank 2012a. The projection for a 2°C rise is the RCP2.6 scenario shown in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014, fig. 6.7.

44. Energy from fossil fuels: My calculation for 2015, from British Petroleum 2016, “Primary Energy: Consumption by Fuel,” p. 41, “Total World.”

45. Scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change: NASA, “Scientific Consensus: Earth’s Climate Is Warming,” http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/; Skeptical Science, http://www.skepticalscience.com/; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014; Plumer 2015; W. Nordhaus 2013; W. Nordhaus, “Why the Global Warming Skeptics Are Wrong,” New York Review of Books, March 22, 2012. Among the skeptics who have been convinced are the libertarian science writers Michael Shermer, Matt Ridley, and Ronald Bailey.

46. Consensus among climate scientists: Powell 2015; G. Stern, “Fifty Years After U.S. Climate Warning, Scientists Confront Communication Barriers,” Science, Nov. 27, 2015; see also the preceding note.

47. Climate change denialism: Morton 2015; Oreskes & Conway 2010; Powell 2015.

48. Bona fides on political correctness: I am on the advisory boards of the Foundation for Individual Rights on Education (https://www.thefire.org/about-us/board-of-directors-page/), the Heterodox Academy (http://heterodoxacademy.org/about-us/advisory-board/), and the Academic Engagement Network (http://www.academicengagement.org/en/about-us/leadership); see also Pinker 2002/2016, 2006. Evidence on climate change: See citations in notes 41, 45, and 46 above.

49. Lukewarming: M. Ridley, “A History of Failed Predictions of Doom,” http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/apocalypse-not/; J. Curry, “Lukewarming,” Climate Etc., Nov. 5, 2015, https://judithcurry.com/2015/11/05/lukewarming/.

50. Climate Casino: W. Nordhaus 2013; W. Nordhaus, “Why the Global Warming Skeptics Are Wrong,” New York Review of Books, March 22, 2012; R. W. Cohen et al., “In the Climate Casino: An Exchange,” New York Review of Books, April 26, 2012.

51. Climate justice: Foreman 2013.

52. Klein vs. carbon tax: C. Komanoff, “Naomi Klein Is Wrong on the Policy That Could Change Everything,” Carbon Tax Center blog, https://www.carbontax.org/blog/2016/11/07/naomi-klein-is-wrong-on-the-policy-that-could-change-everything/; Koch brothers vs. carbon tax: C. Komanoff, “To the Left-Green Opponents of I-732: How Does It Feel?” Carbon Tax Center blog, https://www.carbontax.org/blog/2016/11/04/to-the-left-green-opponents-of-i-732-how-does-it-feel/. Economists’ statement on climate change: Arrow et al. 1997. Recent arguments for the carbon tax: “FAQs,” Carbon Tax Center blog, https://www.carbontax.org/faqs/.

53. “Naomi Klein on Why Low Oil Prices Could Be a Great Thing,” Grist, Feb. 9, 2015.

54. The problem with “climate justice” and “changing everything”: Foreman 2013; Shellenberger & Nordhaus 2013.

55. Scare tactics less effective than practical solutions: Braman et al. 2007; Feinberg & Willer 2011; Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, et al. 2012; O’Neill & Nicholson-Cole 2009; L. Sorantino, “Annenberg Study: Pope Francis’ Climate Change Encyclical Backfired Among Conservative Catholics,” Daily Pennsylvanian, Nov. 1, 2016, https://goo.gl/zUWXyk; T. Nordhaus & M. Shellenberger, “Global Warming Scare Tactics,” New York Times, April 8, 2014. See Boyer 1986 and Sandman & Valenti 1986 for a similar point about nuclear weapons.

56. “World Greenhouse Gas Emissions Flow Chart 2010,” Ecofys, http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/asn-ecofys-2013-world-ghg-emissions-flow-chart-2010.pdf.

57. Scale insensitivity: Desvousges et al. 1992.

58. Moralization of profligacy and asceticism: Haidt 2012; Pinker 2008.

59. Sacrifice vs. benefit as a source of moral approbation: Nemirow 2016.

60. See http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/pinker/files/ten_ways_to_green_your_scence_2.jpg and http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/pinker/files/ten_ways_to_green_your_scence_1.jpg.

61. Shellenberger & Nordhaus 2013.

62. M. Tupy, “Earth Day’s Anti-Humanism in One Graph and Two Tables,” Cato at Liberty, April 22, 2015, https://www.cato.org/blog/earth-days-anti-humanism-one-graph-two-tables.

63. Shellenberger & Nordhaus 2013.

64. Trading economic development against climate change: W. Nordhaus 2013.