Blindsight

Long silence — long enough to make me wonder if I’d been detected.

“Hostile,” Szpindel said at last. “Friendly. We learned those words for life on Earth, eh? I don’t know if they even apply out here.” His lips smacked faintly. “But I think it might be something like hostile.”

Michelle sighed. “Isaac, there’s no reason for — I mean, it just doesn’t make sense that it would be. We can’t have anything it wants.”

“It says it wants to be left alone,” Szpindel said. “Even if it doesn’t mean it.”

They floated quietly for a while, up there past the bulkhead.

“At least the shielding held,” Szpindel said finally. “That’s something.” He wasn’t just talking about Jack; our own carapace was coated with the same stuff now. It had depleted our substrate stockpiles by two thirds, but no one wanted to rely on the ship’s usual magnetics in the face of anything that could play so easily with the electromagnetic spectrum.

“If they attack us, what do we do?” Michelle said.

“Learn what we can, while we can. Fight back. While we can.”

“If we can. Look out there, Isaac. I don’t care how embryonic that thing is. Tell me we’re not hopelessly outmatched.”

“Outmatched, for sure. Hopelessly, never.”

“That’s not what you said before.”

“Still. There’s always a way to win.”

“If I said that, you’d call it wishful thinking.”

“If you said that, it would be. But I’m saying it, so it’s game theory.”

“Game theory again. Jesus, Isaac.”

“No, listen. You’re thinking about the aliens like they were some kind of mammal. Something that cares, something that looks after its investments.”

“How do you know they aren’t?”

“Because you can’t protect your kids when they’re lightyears away. They’re on their own, and it’s a big cold dangerous universe so most of them aren’t going to make it, eh? The most you can do is crank out millions of kids, take cold comfort in knowing that a few always luck out through random chance. It’s not a mammal mind-set, Meesh. You want an earthbound simile, think of dandelion seeds. Or, or herring.”

A soft sigh. “So they’re interstellar herring. That hardly means they can’t crush us.”

“But they don’t know about us, not in advance. Dandelion seed doesn’t know what it’s up against before it sprouts. Maybe nothing. Maybe some spastic weed that goes over like straw in the wind. Or maybe something that kicks its ass halfway to the Magellanic Clouds. It doesn’t know, and there’s no such thing as a one-size-fits-all survival strategy. Something that aces against one player blows goats against a different one. So the best you can do is mix up your strategies based on the odds. It’s a weighted dice roll and it gives you the best mean payoff over the whole game, but you’re bound to crap out and choose the wrong strategy at least some of the time. Price of doing business. And that means — that means — that weak players not only can win against stronger ones, but they’re statistically bound to in some cases.”

Michelle snorted. “That’s your game theory? Rock Paper Scissors with statistics?”

Maybe Szpindel didn’t know the reference. He didn’t speak, long enough to call up a subtitle; then he brayed like a horse. “Rock Paper Scissors! Yes!”

Michelle digested that for a moment. “You’re sweet for trying, but that only works if the other side is just blindly playing the odds, and they don’t have to do that if they know who they’re going up against in advance. And my dear, they have so very much information about us…”

They’d threatened Susan. By name.

“They don’t know everything,” Szpindel insisted. “And the principle works for any scenario involving incomplete information, not just the ignorant extreme.”

“Not as well.”

“But some, and that gives us a chance. Doesn’t matter how good you are at poker when it comes to the deal, eh? Cards still deal out with the same odds.”

“So that’s what we’re playing. Poker.”

“Be thankful it’s not chess. We wouldn’t have a hope in hell.”

“Hey. I’m supposed to be the optimist in this relationship.”

“You are. I’m just fatalistically cheerful. We all come into the story halfway through, we all catch up as best we can, and we’re all gonna die before it ends.”

“That’s my Isaac. Master of the no-win scenario.”

“You can win. Winner’s the guy who makes the best guess on how it all comes out.”

“So you are just guessing.”

“Yup. And you can’t make an informed guess without data, eh? And we could be the very first to find out what’s gonna happen to the whole Human race. I’d say that puts us into the semifinals, easy.”

Michelle didn’t answer for a very long time. When she did, I couldn’t hear her words.

Neither could Szpindel: “Sorry?”

“Covert to invulnerable, you said. Remember?”

“Uh huh. Rorschach’s Graduation Day. ”

“How soon, do you think?”

“No idea. But I don’t think it’s the kind of thing that’s gonna slip by unnoticed. And that’s why I don’t think it attacked us.”

She must have looked a question.