1942

“I know,” Tojo said grimly. “Our strategy subsequent to attacking the United States was to be so solid defensively that any attempt at conquering us would be too expensive for them. It was also decided that Hawaii was outside the limits of our defensive perimeter, because it would be too expensive for us to conquer and hold. Admiral, what has changed your mind?”

“Simply put, the defenses at Pearl Harbor and the rest of Hawaii were far weaker than we believed and are now nonexistent. We can take and hold Hawaii, and the United States will not be able to use it as a forward staging area for assaults on Japan. Any attacks will have to come from California or Australia. I’m also sure that, as prime minister, you can see any number of diplomatic reasons for our holding Hawaii.”

“Of course. But the Americans will immediately bring reinforcements to Hawaii, won’t they?”

“They can’t,” Yamamoto said simply.

“What?”

“They have no fuel. They cannot bring ships or planes to Pearl Harbor because they cannot resupply them with fuel. The final attack on Pearl destroyed the American oil reserves. These cannot be made up, at least not for quite some time. In my opinion, they will have to send their fleet, including the carriers that escaped us, to either Australia or California.”

“I don’t understand. Ships and planes go to Hawaii all the time.”

“Certainly,” Yamamoto conceded, “but many of the ships need oil to get back, and all of the planes need to refuel. Under the current circumstances, any attempt by the United States Navy to reinforce Pearl would result in a graveyard of fuel-starved ships. Few, if any, major ships have the ability to travel such distances and return without refueling. Please recall that Nagumo’s fleet required midocean refueling in order to attack Pearl Harbor.”

“Can’t they use tankers, as we did?”

“Yes, but not until they accumulate a sufficient number to make an impact. I am convinced they will begin to repair the facilities at Pearl fairly quickly, so haste is of the essence.”

Tojo was intrigued. He leaned back and smiled. “Then won’t they reinforce their army? If we believe both their propaganda and our intelligence, they have more than thirty thousand soldiers on Oahu.”

“General, many of that number will be useless mouths in the event of an assault. Thousands are tied up in coastal batteries, administration, and, of course, maintaining an air force that no longer exists, and the remainder are simply not combat ready, despite their claims to the contrary. When we attack, we will totally dominate the air and the sea. American numbers will be irrelevant. As to their reinforcing the army, it will not happen for the same reason that the navy will not make the attempt. The lack of oil will deter them. I am convinced that the United States will not make any attempt to strengthen or enlarge their defenses on Oahu until they have the capability to store fuel for their planes and ships.”

Tojo rubbed his chin. “And when will they be able to do that?”

“My engineers feel it will take them at least three months to repair the depot, and several months after that to accumulate a sufficient quantity of oil to support a fleet.”

Tojo leaned forward. “And why will we be able to succeed in using Pearl as a base when the Americans cannot?”

“General, both mentally and physically we are prepared for war and they are not. We have the necessary tankers and they do not. And, finally, we can make the repairs much more quickly because we will be able to pour engineers into the area and use indigenous labor, even prisoners, to hasten the reconstruction.”

“It is intriguing,” Tojo said with a smile. “Yet so much is happening now. The Philippines have been attacked, as have Malaya and Hong Kong. Other campaigns are beginning or about to begin all over the Pacific. There is a timetable of conquest in place, and you are asking for it to be changed. It could result in chaos.”

“Yes,” Yamamoto replied solemnly. “But I would not request it if I didn’t think it was so very important. Remember when I said we would run wild for six months to a year? Well, the conquest of Hawaii could extend that estimate to years, perhaps decades. Perhaps”-he smiled grimly-”forever.”

“Do you have plans?” Tojo asked, and then he threw back his head and laughed heartily. “Of course you do.”

Yamamoto grinned back. “Nothing final, of course, but enough to show that it is more than feasible. It is an enormous opportunity to ensure the security of Japan.”